If in today’s state election in Thuringia and Saxony if the opinion polls are confirmed, the dissatisfaction of the voters – mainly in eastern Germany – with traditional politics, which appears increasingly weak in the face of the big problems of the times, will emerge in the clearest way. Since the elections the Alternative for Germany (AfD) won, even if he fails to form a government in the states, will have achieved one of the most important upheavals in the political scene of Germany after the reunification of the country.

In Thuringia, the AfD was leading in all opinion polls of recent weeks, with a figure close to 30%, with the Christian Democratic Party (CDU) limited to second place and 23%. And this, despite the fact that the head of the AfD in the state is the infamous Björn Hecke, extreme even by the standards of his party, already convicted twice for using Nazi rhetoric and while the local organization is officially characterized by the Agency for the Protection of the Constitution as “verified far-right extremist”. No one wants to work with Mr. Heke, so even if he manages to overcome the scope of the electoral system that may leave him out of the local Parliament, it will be very difficult for him to join a government. The election is expected to further confirm the establishment of the newly formed “Alliance Zara Wagenknecht” (BSW), with the former leader of the Left adopting a pro-Russian stance and criticizing the government – from the …left – for its policies on immigration and the economy .

In Saxony, the CDU led in the latest poll with 33% to the AfD’s 31%, which is expected to record an increase in its rates from 2019 by at least 5 points. As in Thuringia, here too the BSW is expected to easily secure third place, with a double-digit share, gaining a key role in the formation of a coalition government the following day. In combination with the looming difficulty of the parties of the federal government coalition (SPD, Greens, FDP) to cross the 5% threshold, this evening we will largely talk about a “slap in the face” to the Solz government and a serious upheaval of the political scene in the country .

Voters are going to the elections today with an eye on immigrants and especially on those of them who commit serious crimes in Germany, like 10 days ago in Solingen the 26-year-old Syrian who killed three people with a knife and injured eight others. After that and under the threat of being swallowed up by the Social Democratic Party (SPD), Olaf Solz announced stricter measures for immigrants. The announcements actually “coincided” with the first deportation of illegal immigrants since 2021. On yesterday’s special flight to Kabul, 28 Afghans were on board, convicted of serious crimes – among them the man who raped a 14-year-old girl in 2019 near the city of Ulm.

To the “winners» of today’s elections will probably be included as well Russian President Vladimir Putin. AfD and BSW may be on opposite ends, but they meet without pretense on both their refugee and pro-Russian policies. The Kremlin is systematically trying to influence Germany’s domestic political scene, and it is possible that tonight it will have reasons to celebrate.

In any case and given the fragmented scene, the formation of government alliances for the next day is set to be an extremely complicated affair. If the “doctrine” of excluding the AfD from the state governments is maintained at all costs, it is possible to see the most paradoxical collaborations, such as that of the CDU and the BSW. However, if the AfD wins at least 1/3 of the seats in the state parliament, it will be able to block decisions that require an enhanced 2/3 majority, such as the appointment of judges. At the same time, at the federal level, the AfD manages to be firmly in second place in the polls a year before parliamentary elections, and one or two firsts tonight will give it a strong boost ahead of 2025, while further demonizing it in the eyes of many voters. Already, the percentage of citizens who were categorically against any cooperation of the other parties with the extreme right is gradually decreasing. The picture will be completed on the 22nd of the month, with the elections in Brandenburg, where the extreme right is also ahead.