The ninth day of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine saw the resumption of bombing on Kiev’s outskirts and a breakthrough that indicates Vladimir Putin’s desire to cut off the country’s access to the Black Sea.
There was, however, no major movement until early evening (afternoon in Brazil). “This war may not end soon,” said US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, a bit obvious.
But the dynamics of the day may or may not have to do with negotiations with the International Committee of the Red Cross to adjust the parameters of humanitarian corridors. Agreed in the negotiation that took place in Belarus between the Russian and Ukrainian delegations on Thursday (3), the corridors will theoretically facilitate the departure of civilians from areas under bombardment, which implies a ceasefire in a timely manner.
Nothing seems defined, but it is assumed that it will be offered to the regions of Kharkiv (northeast) and Mariupol (southeast), surrounded and targeted by heavier artillery and missile bombardments. If it follows the protocol of action in the Syrian civil war, Russia will take advantage of the withdrawal to try to dominate the localities.
The city of Mariupol, the last point of resistance to prevent the establishment of a land bridge linking Russia’s Rostov region with Putin’s annexed Crimea in 2014, passing through the pro-Moscow rebel territories of Donbass, said in a statement that the city was being wiped out. .
There has been no water or electricity for two days, in a classic siege to try to subjugate the civilian population. But the novelty on this southern flank of Putin’s actions, from an operational point of view, was the beginning of the advance towards the most important Ukrainian port, Odessa. Throughout Friday, the Mikolaiv city government said it was under a Russian invasion, without further details. The city is west of Kherson, the regional center that Moscow had conquered the day before. From there, it’s 130 km to Odessa.
If that entire area falls, the plan to “close” the Ukrainian coast, a presumed secondary objective of the invasion, could begin to take hold. Of course, then maintaining an occupation is quite another matter, involving far more than the perhaps 200,000 men employed by the Kremlin so far.
Already the primary goal of the campaign, something always hypothetical outside Russian command, Kiev, recorded bombings on its outskirts after a day passed without more serious incidents – on Thursday, the biggest problem was for the residents of Chernihiv (150 km northeast of capital), in an attack that killed dozens in a residential block.
There were rumors that the armored column stationed about 25 km from Kiev was preparing to march, but nothing happened during the day. In Borodianka, a small town 60 km northwest of the capital, the Emergency Services reported that up to 100 people were under the rubble of a building.
The Russian campaign thus advances, but in the eyes of analysts with several problems. In addition to errors such as the division of objectives and dispersion of forces, one aspect is especially intriguing: the fact that the Ukrainian Air Force apparently still manages to launch attacks.
According to the country’s general staff, only on Thursday there were bombings with Su-25 attack planes against Russian positions near Kiev, Sumi and Kharkiv. Moscow, on the other hand, claims to have control of the country’s airspace, having suppressed most of its defenses and also aircraft.
The truth must lie somewhere in the middle, but the fact is that the Kremlin has not been using fighter planes conspicuously. A few Su-25s and their more advanced cousins, the Su-34s, were seen in action, but nothing else. The bulk of the air work is done with cruise and ballistic missiles.
Helicopter airborne assault operations have also resulted in failures, with the exception of the capture of Hostomel airport, near Kiev, to serve as a spearhead for attacks northwest of the capital. Landing attempts near Lviv (west) and Kharkiv resulted in withdrawals.
