Since taking office in July, Iran’s new political leadership has signaled its interest in reconnecting with the Westa development that could restore the country’s diplomatic ties and relieve the economy from sanctions.

For Iran, engagement is more difficult now than ever. Tehran has become embroiled in the Israel-Lebanon conflict. The nuclear deal is up in the air and sanctions have hit the economy. This week, the United States accused Iran of sending ballistic missiles to Russia and imposed new sanctions.

However, regional diplomats and officials, according to the Washington Postsay this week’s developments are unlikely to derail Iranian President Massoud Pezheskian’s efforts to lift his country out of isolation, which one Arab diplomat described as the country’s “only option.”

“In this case, time is not on Iran’s side,” said the diplomat, who meets regularly with Iranian officials, and who spoke on condition of anonymity. He stressed that Iran appears willing to make progress on its commitments to de-escalate domestic and international pressures.

Ballistic missiles in Russia

When the Secretary of State Anthony Blinken announced the sanctions on Tuesday, referring directly to Iran’s diplomatic initiatives.

“Iran’s new president and foreign minister have repeatedly said they want to restore engagement with Europe, they want to win sanctions relief,” he said. “Destabilizing actions like these will achieve just the opposite.”

The sanctions appear softer than those expected when European countries warned Iran that ballistic missile shipments to Russia were approaching a “red line” in the Ukraine war. The measures largely target Iran’s civil aviation and could take months to take effect.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry said the arms transfer claims were a “bad propaganda ploy and a blatant lie”.

The ballistic missile deal with Russia, which the Treasury Department claimed was negotiated long before Pezheskian took office, is an example of how Iranian politics often plays out on two axes, according to Nicole Grajewski, a fellow at Carnegie Endowmentst.

“While the political leadership may push for reforms or diplomacy, the military and security apparatus maintain their own long-term goals, often independent of the political leadership,” said Grajewski, who is the author of the book “Russia and Iran: Partners in Defiance from Syria to Ukraine,” WP reports.

Pezeskian’s many fronts

Just a few months into his term, Pezeskian is facing multiple crises at home and abroad.

The war in Gaza has been going on for almost a year, during which time Israel has exchanged fire almost daily with Hezbollah, Iran’s most powerful allied militia. Domestically, Iran’s economy has repeatedly hit record lows. And widespread frustration over the security forces’ use of heavy-handed tactics continues to simmer.

After the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniya in Tehran in July, Iran promised a “decisive” response. However, that was over a month ago. US officials believe that each passing day reduces the chances of a major incident and escalation, although additional US military assets remain in the region as a deterrent.

Since Pezeskian’s election, Iran has indicated to the Biden administration that it is interested in talks, but US officials are waiting for signs of support from Iran’s supreme leader, who is the ultimate decision maker.

“By siding with Russia in its war, Iran is defending its interests and its existence,” said a Lebanese official who does regular business with Tehran, speaking on condition of anonymity. The official said the latest sanctions on Iran are part of a policy to put it under “sustained pressure,” but that approach is yielding diminishing returns.

“These sanctions have become a double-edged sword,” he said, adding that they have crippled Iran’s economy and ability to project power, but have led Tehran to seek stronger ties with countries such as Russia.

Iran continued to advance its nuclear program and obstruct international inspectors. Uranium enrichment experts have been excluded from inspection teams, and Iran has not explained traces of uranium found at undeclared sites.

But at a council of governors meeting this week in Vienna, UN nuclear watchdog Rafael Grossi said Pezeskian had agreed to meet to discuss improving cooperation. “I encourage Iran to facilitate such a meeting in the not-too-distant future so that we can establish a constructive dialogue that quickly leads to real results,” Grossi said in a statement.

When asked by reporters if the “not-too-distant future” meant after the US election, Grossi replied: “No, hopefully before that.”

Reviving the 2015 nuclear deal has been a priority for the Biden administration. Talks progressed far enough that in 2022 the two sides had begun to consider the “final” texts of a potential agreement, but have since failed to secure any significant progress. The deal had curbed Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief, but collapsed when then-President Donald Trump pulled out of the deal in 2018 and imposed new “maximum pressure” sanctions on Iran.

The role of Khamenei

Iran’s president campaigned promising to improve the economy by ending isolation. And as he assembled his cabinet, his appointments reflected a shift in diplomacy. Former foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, who negotiated the 2015 nuclear deal, was appointed strategic vice president. And career diplomat Abbas Araghtsi, another member of the nuclear negotiating team, is Iran’s new foreign minister.

“He has all the right people in the right place,” said Sina Azodi, an Iran expert and lecturer at George Washington University, of Pezeskian’s government formation. “The question is whether he can get the approval of Khamenei,” Iran’s supreme leader.

In the past month, Pezeskian appeared to be doing everything he could to keep Khamenei on his side, Azodi said, which could cover Pezeskian if he comes under fire from Iranian conservatives who oppose the pledges.

Khamenei addressed Pezeskian’s cabinet directly last month.

“We need not place our hope in the enemy. For our plans, we should not wait for the approval of the enemies,” Khamenei said in a video broadcast on state television. “It is not contradictory that the same enemy is involved in some places. There is no obstacle.”

The comments, while vague, were interpreted by many as opening the door to possible talks with the West. But in the same speech, Khamenei included a warning: “Don’t trust the enemy.”

Iran’s supreme leader “has always provided a little leeway for his governments to try and see what they can achieve,” said Suzanne Maloney, director of the foreign policy program at the Brookings Institution and an Iran expert.

But what kind of deal would still be possible is unclear.
“The framework that worked 10 years ago is virtually unthinkable today,” he said.