OR Alternative for Germany (AfD) maintains its poll lead ahead of Sunday’s election in Brandenburgthreatening to overturn the tradition that the Social Democratic Party (SPD) wants to win elections in the state.

According to a new poll by the INSA Institute on behalf of the Märkische Oder Zeitung, Lausitzwer Rundschau and Märkische Allgemeine Zeitung, the AfD leads with 28.5% (+4.5 from the 2019 election), while the SPD is in second place with 25 % (-1.2) and the Christian Democratic Party (CDU) in third with 16% (+0.4). The newly formed “Alliance Zara Wagenknecht” (BSW) follows with 14% and the Greens are in danger of being left out of the local parliament as they are limited to 4% (-6.8). The Left shrinks to 3% (-7.7) and the Liberals (FDP) to 2% (-2.1). However, according to the regulations of the state, one directly elected seat is enough for a party to secure its entry into parliament, even if the total does not reach the 5% threshold.

If the poll is verified, even a “grand” SPD-CDU coalition would not gather the required majority. However, as all parties reject the possibility of cooperation with the AfD, the possibility of the BSW’s participation in a government structure should not be ruled out. Already, after the elections in Saxony and Thuringia, the party is in exploratory talks with the CDU.

The current Prime Minister Dietmar Vojtke (SPD) has however already declared that he will resign if his party – for the first time since 1990 – does not win the state elections.