While German Chancellor Olaf Scholz attends the UN General Assembly in New York this Sunday, his political future is being decided at home in regional elections being held in Brandenburg, 6,000 kilometers away, in the state that has been a stronghold of the Social Democrats since 1994.

Chancellor Olaf Solz voted by mail for today’s state election in his home town of Brandenburg. At 18:00 (local time) when the polls close, he will co-host with Namibia foreign leaders in New York as part of the United Nations Summit on the Future.

More than 2 million voters over the age of 16 are called to the polls today to elect the new parliament and judge the so far coalition government between the SPD, the Christian Democratic Party (CDU) and the Greens under the popular Dietmar Voytke (SPD), who, in in a last-ditch effort to stave off defeat, he declared that if his party finished second, he would resign.

So, in the event of another defeat at the hands of the far-right it will surely mean the end of him, and Scholz could then very well suffer the fate of US President Joe Biden and his party looking for a new candidate who could avoid a massacre in next year’s national elections.

Throughout the pre-election period, the SPD was trailing the Alternative for Germany (AfD) by at least 5-6 points, but in the last week the difference has narrowed to the margin of polling error, creating the conditions for an absolutely open result tonight. For the third place, the battle is between the CDU and the newly formed “Alliance Zara Wagenknecht” (BSW), while the Greens and the Left are on the razor’s edge for their entry into the Parliament. At the same time, it seems unlikely that the Liberals (FDP) will return to these elections in the local parliament after 10 years of exclusion. In Brandenburg, however, the electoral regulation provides that if a party elects even one deputy by direct election, it ensures its entry into Parliament regardless of its overall percentage.

With the poll data so far, the formation of a government in the state will have characteristics of a puzzle. The current governing coalition is subject to the entry of the Greens, but its total percentages will probably not be sufficient, while the CDU has already declared its reluctance to continue. However, Dietmar Wojtke has already stated that he would be willing to negotiate with Zara Wagenknecht as well.

If the SPD eventually loses this traditional stronghold, it will be yet another defeat after a string of setbacks. It is recalled that the party came third – behind the AfD – in June’s European elections, a devastating defeat that was exacerbated by the election result in Thuringia and Saxony. Although the AfD won the Thuringian elections, it failed to form a coalition.

In the event that they lose this election as well, the question is what developments will it trigger. For now that remains unclear, however, according to Politico it could mean either an early election or maneuvers by the more popular Defense Minister Boris Pistorius taking over the leadership of the party as the country heads towards national elections in 2025.