In recent weeks, in a show of strength and mutual cooperation, Russia and China conducted joint naval exercises and military tests.

According to what experts told DW, Moscow seeks to pull the US away from Europe and weaken NATO, while China aims to intimidate regional rivals and learn from Russia’s war experience.

“Russia wants the US to focus more on the Indo-Pacific, in the hope that it will reduce its military presence and support in Europe,” explains Ying-Wu Lina military affairs expert from Tamkang University in Taiwan.

At the start of the exercises in early September, which 15 countries were invited to attend, Russian President Putin did not fail to point out that “we are very focused on strengthening military cooperation with friendly countries”. This year, however, Russia had again conducted joint exercises with China: last July, Russian and Chinese bombers flew together for the first time in international airspace, while in Europe, Chinese soldiers conducted joint anti-terrorist exercises in Belarus, i.e. on its eastern wing NATOjust a few kilometers away from the Polish border.

Does NATO want to expand into Asia?

China’s activity near NATO borders may be due in part to the Alliance’s plans to strengthen its cooperation with major Asian states – Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand.

Additionally, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has publicly criticized China’s military support for Russia. The alliance has accused China that its aid is enabling Russia to wage war against Ukraine, as Beijing supports Russia’s defense industry, including by supplying engineering tools, microelectronics and other technologies that Moscow needs to manufactures weapons.

Reacting to NATO’s plans for Asia, Lin Yan, a spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, accused the Alliance in July of “violating its borders […] exceeding its defensive zone and inciting the confrontation”.

However, experts in Europe point out that NATO has no desire to expand and offer real security guarantees to partners from the East, in the context of, for example, Article 5 of the NATO Treaty, on the basis of which it should provide military and political support to a member state of the Alliance threatened by another country.

Ian Lesser from the think tank The German Marshall Fund of the United States emphasizes that there is no consensus on the geographical expansion of the Alliance. “NATO is very focused on its areas of interest and responsibility” and aims at the “most obvious and easiest” areas of cooperation, where there is no geopolitical issue.

“It would be easiest for NATO to work with Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand on global issues without geographical boundaries, such as cyber security, security and information sharing and countering terrorism,” says the expert.

What is NATO’s strategy in the Indo-Pacific?

Since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and while the cooperation between Moscow and Beijing is constantly strengthening, NATO has sought to highlight the value of its partners in Asia, especially the four countries mentioned above. These countries attended NATO’s annual meeting for the first time in 2022, just months after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and have attended every year since then.

NATO’s strategy, although still at an early stage, so far includes the exchange of communications on Russia’s aggressive war, the tightening of ties between Moscow and Beijing, China’s claims in the wider region, as well as the security situation on the Korean Peninsula. .

NATO member states are also concerned about Taiwan – a major supplier of semiconductors, essential for electrical items from electric vehicles to mobile phones. Beijing constantly threatens that it aims to reunite Taiwan with the rest of China.

In July, White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said that NATO would launch four new projects with partners from the Indo-Pacific, which would involve artificial intelligence, disinformation, cyber security, and Ukraine. So far, however, the Alliance has not released any other relevant information.

“I would say that the deepening of relations is a process, and NATO’s coordination with the four countries in Asia has already created a solid foundation,” says Sari Archo Havren, an expert on China’s foreign relations at the Royal United Services Institute think tank. based in Brussels.

Japan and NATO, for example, are in the final stages of establishing a special line to share top-secret security information, while European allies have increasingly valued South Korea’s defense industry, which has contributed the most to Ukraine’s indirect supply.

Western allies are wary

Western allies, however, remain cautious, having not yet decided with certainty on the degree of cooperation with their partners in Asia – the same applies to the latter, who on the one hand do not agree on all issues anyway, on the other hand, they are not wary because of China’s influence in the region.

Besides, NATO does not want to open too many fronts, especially at a time when there is a war on its eastern flank and it needs to strengthen its defenses.

“It is also a matter of resources – European NATO member states cannot effectively expand into the Indo-Pacific,” says Arch Havren, pointing out that many European countries already spend less than the proposed 2% of their GDP on defense and “have limited military capabilities even within their borders”.

Edited by: Giorgos Passas