The former Prime Minister of the Netherlands Mark Rutte assumes the position of its general secretary tomorrow Tuesday NATO at a dangerous time for the Western military alliance.

With the war in Ukraine now in its third year, the US, NATO’s largest power, preparing for crucial elections and China gaining strength, NATO faces major challenges.

Here are the main ones that Rutte will have to deal with:

Trump

Over the 32-nation alliance hangs the threat of Donald Trump’s possible return to the White House after the November elections.

The former reality star reportedly considered pulling his country out of NATO during his first term and threatened that there would be no protection for allies who do not spend enough on defence.

Outgoing NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg has been credited with averting a major crisis that could have hit the alliance if the American tycoon went through with his decision.

If Trump is re-elected, Rutte will need all the diplomatic resources he has acquired during more than 13 years as Dutch prime minister to prevent Washington’s role from weakening.

A victory by Democrat Kamala Harris would provide short-term relief for NATO. But, diplomats say, whoever is elected is expected to see a gradual US disengagement from Europe as Washington turns to Asia.

The Ukraine

While Trump’s threat may not materialize, an inescapable reality will be the situation on the ground in Ukraine.

NATO countries, led by the US, have provided 99% of the foreign military aid that has helped Ukrainian forces face Russia since 2022.

As the war enters its fourth year, Rutte will have a key role to play in ensuring that Kiev’s backers continue to offer their help.

At the same time, calls for a negotiated deal are growing.

At its summit this summer in Washington, NATO assumed a greater role in coordinating arms deliveries, but failed to secure commitments for long-term support.

At the same time, Kiev is pushing for its membership in the Alliance.

The US and Germany have so far blocked this prospect, but pressure from Kiev is likely to increase further.

Balancing Ukraine’s expectations against the reticence of key allies will be a key task for Rutte.

Russia

Regardless of how the war in Ukraine plays out, NATO allies say Russia is likely to pose a threat for decades to come.

In the past year the Alliance has adopted the most comprehensive defense plans since the end of the Cold War aimed at preventing any possible attack from Moscow.

While officials insist that combined NATO forces can currently defeat a Russia weakened by the war with Ukraine, the Kremlin is already scrambling to regroup its forces.

Rutte’s main concern will be to try to ensure that NATO is ready for war and at the same time that tensions do not escalate into a nuclear conflict with Russia.

Some allies estimate that Russia may be preparing for war with the Alliance within the next decade.

This gives NATO countries an opportunity to fill the gaps in weapons and manpower that will be needed to implement the new plans.

Western companies were not prepared to cope with the demands of an all-out war in Ukraine after decades of limited investment.

Countries have started to ramp up production but Rutte will have to keep pushing to ensure industry is ready if needed and allies can buy what they need.

The expenses

And this requires money and a lot of money.

A decade after NATO set a target for allies to spend 2% of their GDP on defence, only 23 of them have achieved it.

The new head of NATO will have to oversee the progress towards achieving the goal by others as well.

And there are already calls for the Alliance to set a higher target than 2%.

For frugal Dutchman Rutte, who led his country to that goal in his final year in office, this will be a tall order.

China

Moreover, NATO’s gaze is increasingly on another potential enemy: China.

While the Alliance is bound by its founding treaty in the Euro-Atlantic region, Washington is putting increasing pressure on its allies to beware of the dangers emanating from Beijing.

China’s alliance with Russia has raised this threat in the minds of some European allies and led NATO to strengthen ties with allies such as Japan, South Korea and Australia.

But some allies, notably France, do not want NATO’s attention to be diverted elsewhere, and Rutte will have to strike a balance.