The Middle East is once again holding its breath as the Israel-Hezbollah conflict, controlled and limited in scale until two weeks ago, is developing into a war that threatens to destabilize both Lebanon and the wider region.

Over the past 13 days the conflict between Hezbollah and the Israeli army has escalated dramatically. Airstrikes and rocket attacks set the stage for the war, the simultaneous mass blasts of Hezbollah drones killing dozens and wounding thousands followed by a wave of airstrikes and rocket retaliation.

On September 23, Israel launched its largest air campaign in years. More than 1,300 targets were hit across Lebanon, but mostly in the south. It was the biggest escalation in recent years.

Four days later, Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah was killed, along with the group of senior commanders he was meeting with, when Israel dropped 85 bunker-buster bombs on a southern suburb of Beirut, considered a Hezbollah stronghold.

Despite this, Hezbollah continues to fire rockets and missiles at Israeli targets, signaling that airstrikes cannot provide Israel with the solution it seeks. Hezbollah, meanwhile, has been preparing for this exact scenario for years and has spread its missile forces across the country.

Four scenarios

By sending reinforcements to the north, the 98th Airborne Division, as well as mobilizing reservists serving in units belonging to the Northern Command, Israel has sent the message that it is determined to confront Hezbollah.

But what would victory mean for Israel?

Eliminate Hezbollah

According to analysts, this scenario is considered unlikely. The group is integrated into Lebanese society, especially among the Shia population in the south of the country.

Fighting Hezbollah will only make it stronger, as it is impossible to eradicate as an idea.

When Israel announced in 2006 that it would destroy the group, Hezbollah’s survival was a blow to Israel’s prestige.

A quick raid

And this scenario has a high degree of risk. Hitting Hezbollah’s missile sites and command centers will not cause irreparable damage to the organization. The team has been training for this eventuality for years. Its fighters have received comprehensive training and experience from the war in Syria.

Inciting civil conflict within Lebanon

An unlikely scenario, which would involve exploiting the discomfort felt by some parts of Lebanese society with Hezbollah, especially after the group helped quell protests against the economic crisis in 2019.

This would be a longer-term strategy, with no guarantee of success and with the very real possibility that any civil conflict would have ramifications that no one could control, least of all Israel.

Create a buffer zone and push Hezbollah forces away from the border

A neutral zone

It may sound good in theory, but any attempt by Israel to create a buffer zone around the border would face practical problems.

To maintain the zone, Israel will have to use ground forces to hold the ground. The mountains and rocky terrain make movement difficult and limit tanks and other vehicles, making Hezbollah ambushes much easier.

In 2006, Hezbollah surprised Israeli forces by effectively ambushing their armored forces and sniping Israeli patrols. Israeli army units tried to fight back, their inexperience often leading to disastrous mistakes. At least 20 tanks were destroyed or irreparably damaged in the war as commanders with no combat experience led tanks into carefully prepared ambushes.

However, Israel has learned from its mistakes. His combat units are hardened, if exhausted, after battling Hamas fighters. Internally, the Israeli military is ready and will not make the same mistake twice.

But Hezbollah has also learned, and has greatly increased its strength. In 2006, there were approximately 5,000 fighters in the south. That number has now grown to around 20,000 to 30,000, with thousands more in reserve. Their special forces unit, the Radwan Force, has 3,000 soldiers who are specially trained to operate in the south and know the area very well.

Both sides use technology, namely surveillance drones. Hezbollah has a large arsenal of sophisticated anti-tank weapons, such as the Kornet missile, which has proven effective against Israel’s Merkava tanks.

Any buffer zone means that Israel must keep troops in the buffer zone, in fortified positions, along with patrolling, surveillance and air power. Ground forces would be constant targets for bombs, snipers, ambushes and shots. The result would be to count many victims.

At the same time, the neutral zone will not prevent Hezbollah from launching rockets and drones into Israel. The Israeli military could increase the depth of the neutral zone. However, Hezbollah has an arsenal large enough to launch missiles from anywhere in Lebanon and could hit targets deep inside Israel.

The larger the amount of territory to be seized, the more Lebanese would be under Israeli occupation.

As rocket attacks would continue from parts of Lebanon not yet controlled by Israel, an ever-expanding buffer zone would have practical limits at some stage, or it would have to occupy the entire country or withdraw.

Creating a safety zone – sounds like a simple goal but it is impossible to achieve. This would drag the Israeli military into a long-term quagmire it cannot sustain.