In France the Donald Trump he doesn’t have many likes. According to opinion polls, the percentage of French people who would like to see him win the upcoming American elections barely approaches 15%, which of course does not leave the domestic political staff indifferent. Thus, there are very few political figures who have publicly supported Trump, except for some isolated cases of actors, mainly close to the extreme right, such as for example the president of Marine Le Pen’s party Jordan Bardellawho said he admired Trump “for his patriotism.” Marine Le Pen herself, who in the past had supported Trump, currently remains silent, perhaps considering that while she had asked him to visit him, she never received the relevant invitation.

On the other hand, of course, the four years of Biden was anything but an idyllic period in France’s relations with the USA. On the political level, it was marked by the sudden withdrawal of the US from Afghanistan, while on the economic level, the US Inflation Reduction Act, which subsidizes US companies with billions of dollars, has created acute competitiveness problems in the French and European businesses.

But what is primarily worrying the French, in view of a possible victory of Trump in the elections, is what will happen next with the Ukrainian issue, which the Republican candidate has declared that if elected President he will solve it “within 24 hours”. If this means that he will “solve” it himself in cooperation with Putin, possibly in the absence of the Europeans, and perhaps even of the Ukrainians, then France, which is the most important military power in the EU, and with it all of Europe, will are faced with enormous dilemmas. The risk of division of the EU in this case, but also of NATO, is absolutely real, since their member states will essentially have to decide “whom they will go with and who they will leave”.

Finally, there are not a few who express concerns in France regarding the effects that could occur on the European political scene after the American elections. In most EU member states, far-right parties are on the rise, in several countries they either govern or participate in coalition governments, and if Donald Trump prevails in the USA, these trends will be strengthened, to the great satisfaction of prime ministers such as Melon in Italy and Orban in Hungary.

The only ones who don’t seem to share these concerns, however, are the patrons of Harry’s Bar in Paris, in the Opéra district. An American bar that turns 100 years old this year was opened by an American soldier named Harry Mac Elhone who fought in the First World War and who this time, as he has been doing for a century, is organizing his own election test. He sets up a ballot box a month before the official date of the US election, and those of his clients who have an American passport are also eligible to vote. Ballots are counted at the end of each week by the bartender and currently Kamala Harris, receiving 302 votes is ahead of Donald Trump who has 265 votes. As the current owner, a great-grandson of the first owner, confirms, the election results of Harry’s Bar are always confirmed, with the exception of the Carter-Ford contests in 1976 and Bush-Kerry in 2004.