In the past two months, President Alberto Fernández has held more campaign events than many of the candidates running in this Sunday’s elections (14). During the period, meetings with ministers or offices from his office at the Casa Rosada were replaced by visits to poor neighborhoods, rallies in different provinces and interviews with vehicles aligned with the government, as is typical in Peronism.
The effort is justified. If the Peronists repeat the poor results of the September primaries, the remaining two years of Fernández’s tenure will take place in even more turbulent seas.
Even though the legislative election is divided by districts, it is symbolic that the government lost in the primaries by ten percentage points in the general scenario, in an overwhelming result: defeat in 18 of the 24 districts in the country, including the province of Buenos Aires, which concentrates 38 % of the national electorate.
This Sunday, 34 million voters will go to the polls to elect 127 deputies —out of a total of 257— and 24 senators —out of 72. While all the country’s provinces will choose deputies, only eight will vote for senators: Córdoba, Corrientes, Tucumán, Chubut, Santa Fe, Catamarca, Mendoza and La Pampa.
The main polls show that the numbers for the election will be the same as for the primaries, that is, the advance of the main opposition alliance, the center-right Juntos por el Cambio (JpC), led by the Republican Proposal, party of former president Mauricio Macri . Some institutes, however, point to a slight recovery of the governing coalition, the Frente de Todos (FdT), of different Peronist groups, but without threatening a triumph for the opposition. There are also surveys that predict an even more significant defeat for the government.
One of the regions where the dispute is fiercest is the province of Buenos Aires, where the Peronists paid special attention after losing by four percentage points. According to consultancy Raúl Aragón & Asociados, the representative of Juntos por el Cambio, Diego Santilli, leads with 39% of voting intentions, but Peronist Victoria Tolosa Paz has reduced the difference and now has 37%.
In the country’s capital, the city of Buenos Aires —which has provincial status—, the distance is greater for the opposition. According to the Image and Political Management Consultant, former governor María Eugenia Vidal (JpC) leads with 46% of voting intentions, against 25% for Peronist Leandro Santoro (FdT).
It is in Buenos Aires, too, that the ultra-right has the most support. According to polls, the Avanza Libertad alliance, with economist Javier Milei at its head, will win 15% of the vote, placing it as the third political force in the Argentine capital. At the national level, however, it gathers only 5% of the preference.
There are still between 15% and 19% undecided, and 74% say they will vote for the same candidate in the primaries.
From a political point of view, the defeat of Peronism will be more than symbolic of the weakening of President Fernández, today with a 33% approval rating, according to consultant Isonomía.
His fall in popularity began after scandals during the pandemic, such as his wife’s birthday party, held at the official residence in Olivos, at a time when there were tough quarantine measures in the metropolitan area of Buenos Aires. Another episode was the “VIP vaccination”, in which a series of well-connected people jumped in line to receive doses of vaccines against the coronavirus.
“This election could be a watershed in Argentine politics, because what is being measured, more than Fernández’s popularity or who will occupy which congressional seat, is the answer to the questions ‘Cristina, yes’ or ‘Cristina, no,'” says political analyst Jorge Giacobbe. “In other words, if her preponderance in Argentine politics continues. If Peronism gets less than 30%, it is because the Peronist electorate itself no longer wants Cristina and her image may be starting to dissolve.”
Giacobbe is, of course, referring to Vice President Cristina Kirchner, leader of Peronism. “In Argentina, today there is not even a polarization between Macri and Cristina, it is about voting for Cristina or against Cristina”, he says.
Indeed, the former president was the one who led changes in Fernández’ cabinet after the defeat in the primaries and defined the campaign strategy. “I don’t see her trying to assume the presidency, but she wants to continue influencing the direction of the government. If in the first two years she left the task to Alberto, now, with him weakened, her power increases, and her agenda should become more evident.” says the analyst.
Among Cristina’s open criticisms of the president is Fernández’s haste to close an agreement with the International Monetary Fund, to which Argentina owes US$ 44 billion, as well as debates over social spending and the return of a protectionist policy in commercial relations.
A more pronounced defeat of Peronism this Sunday could leave the government without the possibility of having a quorum to start a session in the Senate without the support of the opposition.
If it also loses deputy seats, Peronism could see the command of the Chamber, headed today by Sergio Massa, change sides, which would put an opponent in the presidential line of succession.
In the economic field, the government’s task in the last two years of Fernández’s administration is not simple either. With accumulated inflation of 52.5% in the year, unemployment at around 10.2% and 40% of the population in poverty, the government has been resorting to different strategies to stretch the social blanket.
It froze the prices of more than 1,400 products until January, banned layoffs and created social plans.
“Printing money, as the government does now, means keeping inflation high, and prices cannot be frozen forever. It will take a policy of adjustment,” says economist Gabriel Rubinstein.
Although hyperinflation is initially ruled out by economists, a recession-inflation scenario is more likely for 2022. “One of the main questions is how to make the inflow of money into the country viable. Investors will not come if there is minimal confiscatory risk , and that’s why measures that signal stability and commitment are important,” says Rubinstein.
Thus, on the eve of the election, the scenario is one of polarization in Argentina, with an agenda marked by economic concerns and the issue of security. The murder of a merchant in La Matanza, the most populous district of Greater Buenos Aires, for example, has contaminated campaign speeches. The leaders of Juntos por el Cambio say the crime, committed by a thief, is the result of the ineffective policy of the Peronist governor of the province of Buenos Aires, Axel Kicillof.
Since last Sunday, residents have been protesting in front of the place where the death took place.
For Peronists, the reason the region has security problems is the mismanagement of predecessors Macri and Vidal, former president and former governor, respectively. Tension in the region, however, is high, with clashes with the police and the use of tear gas to disperse protesters.
In an interview with a TV channel last week, Fernández said that he now understands the problems of the Argentines better and that he had to stop watching the news broadcast by the media, mostly critics of the government, to talk to the people.
“After the result, what worried me the most was listening to the people. I stopped reading the newspapers, listening to the radio and got busy listening to the people, because it took me a lot to understand the election result.”
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