NATO (Western military alliance) began a major military exercise this Thursday (10th), with 30,000 soldiers and the involvement of two aircraft carrier groups, in Norway, Russia’s northern neighbor. It begins its most active phase on Monday (14) and will last for a month.
The biennial Cold Response maneuver, which has been taking place since 2006, was already planned. But its unprecedented size appears to have been made to accompany Vladimir Putin’s military build-up around Ukraine, which erupted in the war started by Russia in its neighbor on February 24.
So far, the largest Cold Response had taken place in 2020, with 16,000 military personnel. This year, attention is also drawn to the presence of soldiers from Finland and Sweden, Nordic countries that are not members of the western alliance and that, in light of the crisis in Eastern Europe, are considering accession.
The troop concentration was reported to Russia’s Northern Fleet, which operates in the same arctic region as Norway, in January. Moscow decided not to send an observation mission, as would be the custom under the convention that requires this type of control in maneuvers with more than 13,000 members to which it is a signatory.
This is problematic for all the animosity that exists today between Russians and Westerners over the Ukraine issue. NATO member Poland has been trying to introduce its MiG-29 fighter jets into the conflict, something the United States has barred from because it would be read as a declaration of war on Moscow. Nuclear, by the way.
When there are observers from other countries, the margin is reduced for movements to be seen as intimidating or even offensive. Indeed, there were no Westerners following the various maneuvers that ultimately helped mount Putin’s four-month offensive in Ukraine.
That is, there is always an increased risk of incidents. Last week, Russian fighter jets briefly invaded Swedish airspace, prompting an alert in the country. Vladimir Putin, after all, has had his nuclear forces on alert since the beginning of the war, threatening Westerners about possible interference in the conflict.
In addition to the air component of the exercise, the presence of two groups of aircraft carriers is noteworthy. One is American, with the nuclear-powered giant USS Harry Truman at the head.
The British, in their quest for renewed global expression under the troubled government of Prime Minister Boris Johnson, will send HMS Prince of Wales, sister warship of HMS Queen Elizabeth, which has made its maiden tour from the North Sea to the South Sea China last year.
The Cold Response maneuver is a big one, but not the biggest post-Cold War maneuver so far. The title goes to the 2018 Trident Junction, which added 50,000 troops across the continent. The great annual Russian maneuvers, with the participation of allies such as China and Belarus, totaled 200,000 men in 2021.
The presence of the Norse also has a special significance. Throughout the Cold War, Helsinki and Stockholm practiced neutrality with an anti-Soviet alignment.
The Finns fought the so-called Winter War in 1940 with Moscow, a conflict much compared to the current one in Ukraine. Subsequent neutrality is seen as a model for those who advocate that Kiev settles with Moscow before an eventual military defeat.
The Swedes, another country on the route of any Soviet invasion of Europe, developed a sophisticated arms industry of their own in response to the communist threat. They once had the fourth largest Air Force in the world, and the technological results are still being harvested today: Brazil bought and will operate Gripen fighter jets made in the small country.
After the Cold War, military budgets dwindled, but Putin’s Russia’s renewed assertiveness changed the game, with Swedes mostly returning to investment in the area. Now, for the first time in history, polls indicate that the majority of the countries’ population is in favor of NATO integration.
Meanwhile, alliance forces have been relocating to Eastern Europe. About 20,000 troops are already in countries such as Romania, which is carrying out joint exercises with the Americans, and Slovakia approved on Thursday the deployment of another 2,000 troops to its country.
