OR German government crisis it creates a worrying void in the current geopolitical chaos, but the prospect of early elections is likely to be welcomed in the European Union for which the instability of Olaf Solz’s governing coalition has become a chronic problem.

Donald Trump’s ominous return to the White House, war in Ukraine, fragile economic situation: the European Union has more than ever need for a stable Germany to proceed.

“There are very important issues on the table. We need a strong Germany within the European UnionFinland’s Prime Minister Petteri Orpo said while attending the summit of the European Political Community in Budapest.

Heads of state and government are meeting in the Hungarian capital for two days to discuss economic reforms proposed by former Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi to boost a European economy that is lagging behind the United States and China.

The topics under discussion concern sensitive issues: new European funding, the tightening of trade policy, the revision of competition rules … But, if the German chancellor calls early elections for the end of March, the discussion of all these issues will have to wait maybe until the summer the formation of the new government in Berlin.

The German government appears to be fully operational, even if Olaf Scholz has stayed on because of the political crisis in Berlin and has been absent since the first day of the Budapest summit. “We are perfectly capable of functioning in the European councils and the government can of course continue to do its job” said Environmental Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck.

But doubts are normal.

Traditionally a driving force of the European Union, “or Franco-German locomotive is failing and this is not good news for Europe at all“, states a European diplomat.

In France, the government that emerged from July’s snap election is fragile and President Emmanuel Macron significantly weakened.

The Budapest Summit “he was going to give it a push” in Mario Draghi’s proposals, “but Olaf Solz cannot bind a future government on sensitive issues such as joint borrowing“, emphasizes the European diplomat.

However, the three-party government coalition of social democrats, environmentalists and liberals will not be missed in Brussels.

Many back and forths, lack of orientation on many issues due to intra-governmental divisions and dichotomies, lukewarmness regarding European commitment, Germany has disoriented and even angered its partners several times in the last two years.

Especially Finance Minister Christian Lindner who was removed yesterday from his duties by Olaf Solz was a red flag.

“Honestly, his removal can be a positive thing.” estimates another European diplomat. “With Lindner it was impossible to discuss a multi-year ambitious budget plan or the strengthening of defense funding at the level of the European Union. Even for flood aid, Germany has always been reluctant to spend».

“This government was completely indecisive on European issues. So we had a weakened Germany, even with a stable government. The sooner this situation ends the better».

Many agree with this point of view. “In the short term, the end of the ruling coalition in Berlin is unwelcome, at a time when Europe needs a boost of unity and resolve.s”, according to another diplomat.

But “in the medium term, it could be a blessing: Solz has never been very EU-oriented. A new chancellor could change this and allow the revival of the Franco-German axis, with a possible return of the CDU to government.

So, good news or bad news? “Maybe both. The crisis is weakening, but if it leads to early elections, this will probably be good news for Europe, as it could bring to power a more cohesive coalition and thus ultimately able to have clearer positions on European initiatives“, says Sylvie Matelly, director of the Jacques Delors Institute.

“In Brussels, we have to be satisfied with the decision thinking that it can hardly get worsethan what this government did. But he warns of the risk of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) making a good score and the uncertainty surrounding its influence after the election.