There may be only seven weeks left for meaningful fighting in the war between Ukrainian and of Russiaas both sides do what they can for one last big push on the fronts.

US President-elect Donald Trump has vowed to end the conflict within a day of taking office and has appointed former national security adviser and retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg as a special envoy for Russia and Ukraine with a mandate to negotiate a ceasefire , Politico notes in its analysis.

As time runs out before Trump re-enters the White House on January 20, Ukraine’s Western-backed military and the Kremlin’s invasion forces are scrambling to seize territory and whatever tactical advantage they can – aiming to bolster their bargaining chip before the start of the talks.

“A game-changing proposal is about to be introduced in the form of Donald Trump”said James Nixey, head of the Russia-Eurasia program at London-based think tank Chatham House.

That makes the next two months until his inauguration a potentially dangerous time, two years and nine months into the war, with so much at stake for both sides.

“Everyone assumes that negotiations will follow and both the Ukrainians and the Russians want to be in as good a position as possible before they start.”said a senior Western official, who spoke to Politico on condition of anonymity. “As both sides make great efforts, the risk of miscalculation becomes more acute.”

The escalation is evident everywhere – especially in words and actions from Moscow. In recent weeks, Russia has deployed thousands of troops from North Korea, launched a new type of missile in Ukraine and even loosened conditions on the use of its nuclear weapons.

The Kremlin has also said that a US anti-missile base in Poland would be a “priority target for potential neutralization”.

Russian forces stepped up their operations in eastern Ukraine this month, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), seizing 574 square kilometers of territory as of November 1, more than they did earlier this year or in 2023 .

Outgoing US President Joe Biden, meanwhile, led Western powers in giving Kiev permission to launch long-range missiles at targets inside Russia.

Kiev and Moscow have other reasons to wish for a quick end to the war. “They’re both in a race against time, not just because of Trump, but because they both have practical problems.”Nixey said.

Ukraine is short on manpower and appears to be “on track to lose this war,” according to Nixey. Russia has found reinforcements from North Korea and additional military support from China, but its economy is under pressure from a weakening ruble and Russian President Vladimir Putin has so far avoided ordering another round of conscription.

On the battlefield, NATO officials believe Russia is gaining ground but at a high cost, losing perhaps as many as 1,500 troops a day. Ukraine is holding on, although it is difficult. “It’s not easy, but it’s not over. It’s not a lost cause”said Admiral Rob Bauer, chairman of NATO’s military commission.

Putin is still fighting

The final weeks of the war could be crucial as the terms of the ceasefire could define the lives of people in Ukraine for generations, Norwegian Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide said.

With Trump’s second term looming, Ukraine’s allies have decided to hedge their bets. In addition to giving Kiev permission to launch long-range missiles at Russia, Western officials have been meeting in recent days to discuss how to achieve the best possible outcome if Trump forces some kind of negotiations in January.

Reports from France note that London and Paris have discussed the possible deployment of troops as part of a peace initiative. British Foreign Secretary David Lammy did not rule out the possibility of British forces being on Ukrainian soil in the future.

Trump’s choice of peace envoy is also indicative of his intentions. In April, Kellogg, 80, co-signed a strategy document calling for continued arming of Ukraine, but only if Kiev agreed to participate in peace talks with Russia. To persuade Putin to join, Kellogg argued that the US “they should offer to postpone Ukraine’s NATO membership for an extended period in exchange for a comprehensive and permanent peace agreement with security guarantees.”

There’s just one problem with all this peace talk: “There is little sign that Putin really wants to negotiate”the Western official said. “He can be patient where it’s in his best interest.”

Canadian Foreign Minister Melanie Jolie warned that the risk of negotiations with Putin would be that he regroups and attacks again. “I really think Putin has no red line”she said. “The real threat we face is either he decides to leave, rearm and strike again, or he does that elsewhere.”

Putin’s offensive is not limited to the immediate conflict zone. Western governments are on heightened alert for so-called hybrid warfare.

Western officials accuse the Kremlin of planting package bombs on planes, attempting targeted assassinations and carrying out attacks on critical infrastructure such as railways, undersea cables and power grids.

So if Putin doesn’t want peace, what does he want? The answer, according to Nixei, is the expansion of war.

“He believes he is at war with the wider West and has found a new way to deal with it by calling and joining forces with what he calls the “global majority.””said Nixei. “Putin does want the rules-based international order to collapse” he added.