The rebels’ surprise advance into Syria and their swift capture of the cities of Aleppo and Hama threaten one of the proudest achievements of Russian President Vladimir Putin, his 2015 military intervention to prop up the Bashar al-Assad regime.

Nearly a decade later, however, Russia has launched a major war in Europe, and it remains unclear whether Moscow has the resources to save Assad again, even though it has pledged its support.

“We are in constant dialogue with our Syrian friends, with Damascus,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Thursday. “And depending on the assessment of the situation, we will talk about the degree of assistance necessary for the Syrian authorities to deal with the militants and eliminate this threat.”

In the present phase, not only Russia’s prestige is at risk, but its military foothold in the Eastern Mediterranean region: the Tartus naval base and, further north, the Khmeimim air basefor which Moscow has entered into an agreement providing for a 49-year lease.

Russia has maintained a significant military presence in Syria and stepped up its airstrikes in recent days, with human rights monitors reporting attacks on civilian facilities such as hospitals, schools, displaced persons camps and residential areas.

But news on Thursday that rebels had driven the Syrian army out of the city of Hama raised questions about Russia’s ability to halt the rapid collapse of Assad’s army.

The Syrian regime’s military setbacks could cut off the two Russian bases from the capital Damascus, analysts said, particularly if forces led by the Islamist militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham occupy the strategic city of Homs. On Friday, rebels launched their siege of Homs.

Russian bases not only help protect the Assad regime, but have also allowed Moscow to project its military power in the eastern Mediterranean and assert a role as a global power with vital regional interests, challenging American supremacy.

Russia, however, has focused on its war in Ukraine, with Russia’s overwhelming advance in eastern Ukraine costing it huge in casualties. Britain’s Ministry of Defense estimated that November was the deadliest month of the war so far for Moscow’s forces, with an average of more than 1,500 killed or wounded a day.

It has also faced a Ukrainian invasion of its own territory since August, which it has been fighting to repel with the help of North Korean soldiers.

With Russia now unable to increase its military presence in Syria, analysts say Putin’s main priority will be to prevent threats to the Khmeimim and Tartous bases, through military strikes to limit rebel advances or pressure on Assad to negotiate a peace deal with Turkey, which supports some rebel factions and maintains forces in the north of the country.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Thursday that representatives of Russia, Iran and Turkey may meet in the coming days as part of the Astana Process, a platform the three powers formed in 2017 to resolve the Syrian crisis and protect their regional interests.

While Russia claimed that its airstrikes have killed hundreds of rebel fighters in Idlib, Hama and Aleppo provinces, they have not stopped HTS fighters from taking first Aleppo and then Hama.

Charles Lister, a Syria expert at the Middle East Institute, said that even during the war in Ukraine, Moscow never reduced its military presence, although the size of the Russian officer corps in Syria had been reduced.

“Russia is maintaining exactly the same troop levels. They have carried out the same number of airstrikes over Syria with the same geographical range that they did before the war in Ukraine,” he said, speaking on the Lawfare podcast.

What has changed, however, is the strength of Iran-backed forces in Syria, particularly Hezbollah, which has been weakened by Israeli attacks in recent months and could no longer provide much-needed support to Assad’s army.

Pro-Kremlin media and Russian military bloggers have accused Assad of failing to build a strong professional army, even as HTS began to assemble itself into a well-equipped force.

“The Syrian government is showing a complete inability to carry out reforms and find the necessary solutions. This applies to all sectors, including the military.

As of 2020, nothing has been done to improve the armed forces of the Syrian Arab Republic. They are in a state of partial decay,” Kirill Semenov, a Syria expert at the pro-Kremlin Russian International Affairs Council, told Vzglyad newspaper.

One factor, however, in favor of continued Russian support is the enormous symbolic importance for Putin of the initial Syrian intervention, which was the first major challenge to the Kremlin outside the territories of the former Soviet Union, said Nicole Grajewski, a Russia expert. and Iran in Syria at the Carnegie Endowment on International Peace.

“I think Syria certainly played a central role in Russia’s perception of itself as a great power,” he said, adding that it came a year after then-US President Barack Obama called Russia a “regional power”.

“It was one of the examples the military used to show its effectiveness. And this was the first real demonstration of the Russian aerospace forces. It showed Russia’s ability to come in and serve as the alternative great power, as opposed to the West,” he said.

The fall of Aleppo within days reversed one of Russia’s most significant achievements in Syria’s 2016 war, when it allowed Assad’s army, on the brink of defeat, to finally capture the entire city. It was then considered a turning point in the war.

Grajewski said Russia, Syria and Iran are likely planning a counterattack because the rebels could pose a real threat to the Russian bases in Khmeimim and Tartous, particularly if Homs is threatened.

“I just couldn’t imagine how humiliating and embarrassing it would be for Russia to have Khmeimim or Tartus captured by rebel forces,” he said. “I think Iran and Russia are probably coordinating pretty closely right now to see what ground forces or militias they can muster to repel this insurgent attack.”

He noted, however, that HTS appeared to be far more capable than rebel forces in 2016 and “so it will be difficult.”

Vladimir Pastukhov, an emeritus research fellow at University College London’s School of Slavonic and East European Studies, wrote on Telegram that if Assad were defeated, it would be painful for Russia and a setback for Moscow’s geopolitical ambitions, as it would be difficult to find a new location for the critical air base and naval facility.

Russia has used the bases as a staging post for mercenaries heading to Libya and other parts of Africa, expanding its reach on that continent.

Analyst Georgy Bovt, of the Moscow-based Foreign and Defense Policy Council, said Turkey would likely benefit from rebel advances, with the Russian military committed to Ukraine.

“Turkish President Recep Erdogan, who considers Assad his enemy, will benefit from the weakening of the regime and will be able to expand his influence in northern Syria,” he wrote on Telegram.

He said Russia, Turkey and Iran had used the Astana Process to iron out their differences over the future of Syria, “but now the Turkish General Staff has dismantled those arrangements.”

Russian commentators also claim they see Ukrainian involvement, and accuse Moscow’s nemesis of being behind the rebels’ successes – a charge Ukrainian officials deny.

Even two weeks before the attack, Putin’s envoy to Syria, Alexander Lavrentiev, claimed that Ukrainian intelligence services were aiding Syrian “terrorists” in an effort to harm Russia.

“We have information that Ukrainian specialists from the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine are in Idlib, and they are not only supplying unmanned aerial vehicles there through certain channels, but also training extremists in their construction and use, which is very dangerous,” he said.