Germany is in pre-election period and the fact that it takes place in the heart of winter is not the only unusual thing. The elections of 23 February 2025 look set to be held at the most tense, fragile and decisive moment in the last 20 years. And the pre-election confrontation is predicted to be correspondingly tough and merciless.

In his “Political Barometer.” ARD in the last week, 3/4 of Germans say that their biggest concern is about the economy, which has been the case for many years. Until now, Germany has been “well-mannered”. Issues such as employment, security and general well-being were taken for granted and public debate was more about the ‘details’ of policy. But these luxuries are now gone. Germany may remain Europe’s strongest economy and the world’s third largest, but its problems are big, serious and mostly structural, with the result that even the country’s prospects are now being called into question. The questions are again about war and peace, security and the economic model. That is, all that Europe and Germany thought they had left behind for good. In this context, the positions of the parties and the personalities of their leaders acquire new importance.

In Christian Union (CDU/CSU) in theory everything should be in order. THE Friedrich Mertz managed to be elected its leader in 2022 Christian Democratic Party (CDU) and had all the time to move the party from the center, where they left it Angela Merkel and her successors, Annegret Kramb-Karrenbauer and Armin Lasset. Mr. himself Mertz, moreover, was the first to receive the anointing of his party in the run-up to the election and has been enjoying a clear poll lead of 12-15 percentage points over the second force for months. Still, there is no shortage of complaints. Four weeks after the collapse of the governing coalition, the Union is not capitalizing on the government’s failure – it has barely increased its rates. Both in the Political Barometer and in its latest poll BILDeven records losses. In addition, his personality Friedrich Mertz proves too … intense for the Germans, resulting in his popularity falling short of that of his party, even against Olaf Solz. The Social Democratic Party (SPD) characterizes him as a “hothead” and a “dangerous warmonger”, as he has taken a much tougher stance than the chancellor’s on the issue of Ukraine and armaments, supporting the deployment of Taurus missiles.

The leader of the “minor” partner, the Christian Social Union (CSU), Marcus Zender he never hid that he himself was interested in the chancellorship. For months he even left open the possibility of claiming the anointing. He finally backed down, but he doesn’t mean to make it easier for his inner competitor. He hastened to set the threshold of success for Friedrich Merz at 38-40%, but also to veto any post-election cooperation with the Greens, which his partner probably looks down on.

The SPD he is embarrassed by his polling malaise and the chancellor’s low personal ratings Olaf Solz. Although it was clear from the start that the unwritten rule that the chancellor should rightfully receive the anointing of his party would be respected, the Social Democrats did everything they could to start this election campaign at an even greater disadvantage. For weeks they let opinions circulate about a possible change of candidate, since in their ranks there is currently the most popular politician in Germany, the Minister of Defense Boris Pistorius. He himself left the possibility half-open for weeks, further undermining the position of Mr. Soltz, taking advantage of the party’s decision to officially give the anointing on January 11, just 40 days before the elections. Eventually the leadership complied, officially nominated Olaf Solz as chancellor candidate and Mr. Pistorius released a video message in which he renounces – for the time being – any ambition and declares his loyalty to his chancellor.

THE Olaf Solz however, he would like – and possibly deserves – to be credited with trying to coordinate the governing coalition, after it was revealed that one of the partners was plotting to break it up. In an unprecedented display of German political mores, the usually measured Scholz denounced the leader of the Free Democrats (FDP) and former finance minister Christian Lindner that he betrayed his trust and put party benefit above the national interest, while blaming him entirely for the collapse of the coalition. Spiegel describes him as “Bagapontis” in its latest issue, following the reports of a “D-Day” plan for the FDP to leave the government without being charged with responsibility for the dissolution of the government structure. In the last polls, the party of Mr. Lindner shrinks to 4% and it seems that entry into the Bundestag is anything but a given. Dreams of co-government with the Christian Union are beginning to fade and the party, either before or – at the latest – after the election, will likely face a leadership issue as well.

The Greens they maintain percentages close to 14% and it is estimated that after the elections they will become the … attractive bride for co-government. That’s why, after all, Friedrich Mertz lastly he takes care to highlight the points of contact with them and not the chaos that otherwise separates them. The once eco-anti-war party, however, is once again facing an identity crisis in its history. The climate flag with which in 2021 they received 14.8% almost doubling their percentages has been subdued, under the weight of the war in Ukraine, the carnage in the recent European elections and the personal ambitions of the foreign minister Analena Burbok and the Minister of Economy and candidate for chancellor Robert Hambeck. After a series of electoral defeats in state elections in September, the leadership has been replaced, but the decision on whether in the election the party will go with its traditional issues of climate and disarmament or show a more pragmatic face and throw its weight behind on social issues.

In Alternative for Germany (AfD) they probably don’t need to do much. The traditional parties “work” on their behalf. The German far-right is fed by the failures of the government and the ideological ambiguities of the Christian Union and, despite the revelations of cooperation with marked neo-Nazis, it has consolidated itself in second place in the opinion polls, with a percentage of 16-18%. The leader of the parliamentary group Alice Weidel was yesterday anointed as the chancellor candidate, but she knows that for now there is no prospect of her party participating in the government at the federal level, as all parties reject any possibility of cooperation. With positions in favor of Germany leaving the EU and the eurozone, it would be difficult to find partners anyway.

With claims, the newly established organization goes to federal elections for the first time “Zara Wagenknecht Alliance” (BSW), which has just secured its participation in the Brandenburg state government, under the SPD. “It’s not a love marriage,” both partners were quick to clarify, but Ms. Wagenknecht’s success is not understated. Her opponents describe her as the “far-left AfD” and, moreover, early elections look set to make it difficult for her party to organize itself, which has yet to settle on candidates in all regions.

A central feature of the pre-election campaign, so far, however, is the personal attacks between the leaders, something that especially in the era of Angela Merkel it was considered almost taboo. All public opinion surveys show at the same time that citizens want above all stability and effective solutions to the major issues of the economy, security, employment and immigration. THE Olaf Solz he reminded a few days ago that after the elections the same leaders will have to cooperate in one way or another and it would be good if they could then look each other in the eye. The country is in crisis and is not expected to have a new government before Easter and for the first time, this is a problem – both for itself and for its partners.