Of all the foci of unrest that the Biden administration has had to, or expected to deal with and manage in recent years in the world, one country was off the list: Syria, comments the Washington Post.

A US-backed peace process in Syria, launched after the civil war broke out in 2011, was moribund. The lines that cut the country into spheres of influence between global and regional powers had not changed significantly for years. Arab governments that once sought to oust Iranian-backed President Bashar al-Assad had begun to embrace him.

Embarrassment of the West

The surprise attack launched by the Islamist rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) that led to the collapse of Assad’s government and military forces in less than two weeks has left governments around the world scrambling to figure out what to do with the Biden administration first of all.

Senior US diplomats have rushed to the region, opening talks in Turkey, Jordan, Lebanon, Iraq and Israel. Egypt and Saudi Arabia are also engaged in talks about trying to maintain stability in Syria and trying to promote some kind of political transition.

The United Nations Security Council, currently chaired by the United States, held a closed-door meeting on Monday afternoon with the UN special envoy for Syria and the head of the UN peacekeeping force responsible for to monitor the truce between Israel and Syria since the 1973 Yom Kippur War.

Since Assad’s fall, Israeli forces have made limited incursions into the UN-monitored safe zone from the Golan Heights – Syrian territory they captured during the war and later annexed – and have carried out airstrikes targeting what Israel calls suspected chemical weapons and missile sites in Syria so they don’t “fall into the wrong hands,” according to Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar.

Roger Carstens, the chief US hostage negotiator, has landed in Beirut to coordinate efforts to find Austin Tice, an American journalist kidnapped in Syria twelve years ago. He is just one person among tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands, of Syrians who disappeared under Assad’s brutal regime and whose families are now desperately searching for them as prison doors open.

The US Justice Department on Monday unsealed indictments against what it said were two senior Assad officials, accusing them of conspiring to commit war crimes against US citizens and others between 2012 and 2019.

The Biden administration has coordinated safe passage into eastern Syria for tens of thousands of Syrians displaced internally by the conflict in the West.

Meanwhile, the US military, which maintains a force of about 800 troops at various locations in eastern Syria, has coordinated and allowed an allied militia to seize strategic territory long held by Assad and Tehran, and encouraged neighboring Iraq prevent Iranian and Iranian-backed militias from crossing the border into Syria; according to US officials.

U.S. military efforts so far have focused on preventing Islamic State forces in eastern Syria from taking advantage of the chaos. On Sunday, the United States launched dozens of airstrikes against Islamic State militants.

But there are other obvious options – or wishes – for managing the situation. “At the end of the day, this is a process to be led by Syriansnot by the United States, or by any other country in the region,” State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said Monday, essentially echoing statements made more than a decade ago when the Obama administration tried to steer Syria into a peaceful, democratic resolution.

“And what we can do is make it clear that we will support the Syrian people on this path to a better future,” Miller said. “We will protect our interests while doing this, we will make sure that ISIS does not re-emerge,” he said. “But it is not for the United States to try to use its influence or pressure to dictate any path forward.”

The US official added that the Biden administration would like to see “de-escalation going forward” and discouraged any group from trying to take advantage of the unrest by trying to claim new territory.

This includes HTS itself, which was once aligned with al-Qaeda and whose leader had past ties to Islamic State leaders. Miller noted that HTS was saying “the right things” recently, but that its future actions remained an open question. He said US sanctions against Syria and the possible resumption of diplomatic relations with Damascus were tools Washington could use to try to encourage Syria’s new leaders to push for an inclusive political process.

Another senior administration official, speaking on condition of anonymity, gave no indication that the Biden administration was willing to reassess its policies on distancing the situation in the short term.

“It is too early to tell whether HTS’s promises of pluralism and democracy will be kept and what the organization’s broader goals are.”the official commented. “We are not going to draw any conclusions yet.”

Abandoned Russian weapons?

The senior administration official noted that Biden officials had “constructive” talks with incoming President Donald Trump’s Syria team. Trump, who as president in 2017 authorized the firing of 59 cruise missiles at a Syrian air base as US intelligence believed Assad had launched chemical weapons attacks against his own people from there, wrote in a social media post last week that the United States should be kept out of the conflict. “THIS IS NOT OUR WAR. LET HIM EVOLVE. DO NOT GET INVOLVED” he said characteristically.

The Pentagon is part of a collaborative effort among intelligence agencies assessing the various armed groups in Syria to determine potential partners that align with the security interests of the US and its allies, a Pentagon official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Another US official said they were looking at how much equipment and weapons Russia, which has long supported Assad and has several military bases in Syria, was able to take with it when its forces withdrew due to the HTS advance. Anything left behind could one day be turned against US forces or its allies, depending on whose hands it falls into, he warned.

Sabrina Singh, a Pentagon spokeswoman, told reporters on Monday that the United States is not communicating directly with HTS, but has “its people in other groups that have ways of getting messages to it, and to other rebel groups.”

Risk of another collision

The regional partners are also a “basket” in the vortex of opposition forces in Syria – most of them were formed during the civil war. Jordan has ties to rebels in southern Syria, and Turkey and the United States have long supported groups in the north along the Turkish border that have been hostile to Assad, but also hostile to each other.

The Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) and the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) – Syrian Kurds whom Ankara considers terrorists – have been fighting each other for years. Concurrent with the HTS action, the SNA launched what it called “Operation Dawn of Freedom” against SDF areas along the border.

Turkey, which is also a supporter of HTS, supported the SNA’s offensive against SDF forces in the northern border city of Manbij and the eastern part of Aleppo province in recent days, according to Arab press reports. Reuters reported on Monday that the United States and Turkey had reached an agreement to ensure the safe withdrawal of the SDF from Manbij on the east bank of the Euphrates River.

In talks with Turkey, the Biden administration is trying to avoid a direct confrontation between the SNA and the SDF that could distract and undermine the Kurdish-led Syrian militant groups, including the SDF, that guard the al-Hol camp and others prisons in northeastern Syria where thousands of Islamic militants are held.

But the SDF, while now probably the best-armed and most homogeneous force in Syria, could be tested if Turkey, HTS, or both, target it, Kenneth “Frank” McKenzie commented in the Washington Post , a retired general who commanded US forces in the region from 2019 to 2022.

“The first challenge of any country is to regain its full sovereignty,” he said, warning that HTS may not leave the Kurds undisturbed in the semi-autonomous northeastern region they have controlled for several years. “Extremist groups tend to stay extremist” noted.