Germany’s government is collapsing, with Chancellor Olaf Scholz almost certain to lose a vote of confidence in the German parliament on Monday. Thus, the crisis that started at the beginning of November will culminate with early elections on February 23 and while it is certain that the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) will try to obstruct the work next week, what will follow on the political scene is easy to predict.

The Constitution, designed to prevent the turmoil that occurred during the Weimar Republic (which contributed to the rise of the Nazis) contains a number of provisions intended to disintegrate the government as steadily and smoothly as possible.

Politico has made a guide to what follows in Germany:

What is the next step?

When Scholz appears before the German parliament on Monday, the majority of 733 MPs of the country is expected to withdraws trust of the centre-left politician.

Losing the confidence vote is a procedural and necessary step to pave the way for early elections after Solz’s fractured three-party coalition collapsed last month.

During Monday’s meeting, Soltz will first make a 25-minute statement, in which he is expected to outline his reasons for asking for a vote of confidence. His speech will be followed by a parliamentary debate lasting approximately 2 hours, after which MPs will go to the polls to withdraw or confirm their confidence in the chancellor.

Is the outcome predetermined?

Although nothing is impossible, Soltz is very likely to lose the vote. And that’s something he hopes for as well.

The only party that can do something unpredictable is the far-right AfDwhich is known for its unexpected, tactical moves in past polls.

Some of his MPs have already stated that plan to support Soltz because they fear that the potential next chancellor, Mr Friedrich Mertz from the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), could plunge Germany into war as he supports Ukraine more in the war with Russia than Scholz does today.

“I don’t want to see Mr. Mertz in a position of responsibility”said Jürgen Paul, the first AfD lawmaker to announce he would vote for Soltz. However, only a small number of the AfD’s 76 MEPs will follow suit.

The AfD is currently at second place in the pollswhich would likely make it the biggest opposition force after the election – so it has an interest in dissolving parliament.

In any case, the leaders of the Green parliamentary groups look set to spoil potential far-right “surprises” by calling on their MPs to they are far from voting. This means that even if all AfD MPs, and Solz’s own parliamentary group, support the chancellor, he will still not have a majority.

What’s next?

If Soltz loses the vote, he will propose Monday afternoon to the president, Frank-Walter Steinmeier the dissolution her Bundestagas the chancellor himself had stated.

“If the president accepts my proposal, voters will be able to elect a new Bundestag on February 23. That’s my goal,” Soltz had pointed out.

So Solz and his minority government, which includes his own center-left Social Democratic Party and the Greens, will remain in power. However, because it lacks the parliamentary majority necessary to pass laws, it will have a weak government both at home and abroad.

How did Germany get to this point?

At the beginning of November, a few hours after he won the American elections, Mr Donald TrumpScholz announced on camera that his tripartite alliance was collapsing in dramatic fashion over a spending dispute.

Solz’s coalition – made up of the SPD and the Greens on the left of the political spectrum and the fiscally conservative Free Democratic Party (FDP) on the center right – was never a match.

Both the SPD and the Greens favor a strong social safety net and big investments to accelerate economic growth and the transition to green energy. The FDP, on the other hand, wants limited spending.

What will Germany’s next government look like?

The CDU of Merz and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union, are already leading the polls by a wide margin, with 32%. This is double what Solz’s SPD is expected to get, which is just behind the AfD in third place.

With the Conservatives poised to win the February election, the big question is who will become the junior partner of their coalition and whether that party (most likely the SPD or the Greens) it will be quite strong to make a bipartisan coalition possible. Due to the rise of the AfD and the creation of the new populist-left Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW), three-party coalitions – which are uncommon in post-war Germany and tend to be more volatile – may become the new normal.

The Greens have recently join the CDU of Merzhighlighting their similar positions in foreign policy. Both parties tend to be more favorable to supporting Ukraine in its war with Russia than Soltz, who has campaigned on a “prudent” approach.

However, while Merz is not ruling out a coalition with the Greens, Bavarian CSU leader Markus Sober – a frequent critic of the Greens – said on a podcast this week that would veto such an alliance.

The FDP is meanwhile struggling to even enter the next Bundestag. The party, which has been plunged into crisis following revelations that it was methodically plotting to topple Solz’s coalition, is polling below the 5 percent threshold needed to win seats in parliament.

Edited by: Anastasia Kitsikosta