European nations are discussing sending troops to Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire or peace deal, as US President-elect Donald Trump has made it clear he will not send US forces to Ukrainian soil to guarantee security.

The talks, led by French President Emmanuel Macron, are at an early stage but have already shown divergent views on the possible goals and scope of such a mission.

With Kiev still fighting, European leaders want to avoid giving Russian President Vladimir Putin the impression that they believe the time has come for talks and that he will be able to hold on to his battlefield gains. They insist the talks are focused on boosting military and economic aid to Ukraine and that they see no sign Putin is ready to negotiate.

But behind the scenes, some officials are considering how European states could provide security guarantees to Ukraine, including through a force of tens of thousands of troops on Ukrainian soil.

Such a force would raise the risk of a direct conflict with Russia and stretch European militaries, whose arms stocks have been depleted by donations to Ukraine as they have relied heavily on US support for major missions.

But Trump, in talks with Macron and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Paris on December 7, ruled out a role for US troops in enforcing the truce and insisted the Europeans should play that role themselves, he says Reuters.

This means that the Europeans will be deployed in Ukraine, whether Kiev receives security guarantees through NATO membership – as it hopes – or through bilateral assurances.

“Even if the NATO security guarantee was there, where would the forces on the ground come from? They would be European, so our military chiefs are already preparing plans for European leaders to consider in the future,” said a senior European official.

Major European nations such as France, Germany, Italy, Poland and Britain could make up the bulk of the force, officials say.

Criticism of Macron

Macron was criticized when he tried to push the issue, given the political sensitivity of the troop deployment.

After talks with Macron last week, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said Warsaw had no plans to join such a force.

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said on Monday that Berlin would likely play a role in securing the ceasefire, but it was too early to say what kind of force would be needed.

Zelensky said the issue could be raised during today’s meeting in Brussels led by NATO chief Mark Rutte.

But Rutte said last week that he had urged his NATO partners and Ukraine “not to talk” about future scenarios.

“Right now, if you’re discussing this openly, why should Putin go to the table as long as he gets what he wants,” Rutte said.

Analysts say the debate so far has revealed a confusion over whether a future European mission would take on a traditional peacekeeping role, such as monitoring the ceasefire line, or whether it would act as a strong deterrent against any further Russian aggression.

Italian officials have spoken of peacekeeping, while French and Ukrainian officials have focused on deterrence.

Estimates of force magnitude

A deterrent force could be made up of a coalition of about five to eight states, said a Ukrainian official familiar with some of the discussions.
Analysts and officials have given varying estimates of the size of such a force, stressing that much will depend on its precise mission. Some analysts estimate that around 40,000 troops may be a feasible number.

Under a plan that calls for rotational deployment, there would also be units preparing to deploy and regroup, which would mean about 100,000 troops could be involved in the mission at any time, said Franz-Stefan Gandy, an Austrian former military planner who is now at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

“It will seriously expand European ground forces, for sure,” he said.

A European security official, speaking on condition of anonymity, also said as many as 100,000 troops might be needed.

Gandhi said such a force could be created if some European states cut back on other missions, such as the one in the Balkans.

Europe, the US and other partners deployed about 60,000 troops to Bosnia and 50,000 to Kosovo in the 1990s, but those missions are much smaller now.

Also under discussion is the composition of any international force – as participating states would have to be acceptable to both sides.

Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto said it should be under the auspices of the United Nations. But other officials say that option would give Russia too much influence as a permanent member of the UN Security Council.

The Europeans will likely also have to persuade the United States to get involved in some way, at least by providing intelligence and other operational assistance, analysts said.

And the potential rules of engagement are among the many critical issues that remain unclear.

“What if a European soldier is shot?” asked a French soldier.