After a nearly week-long stalemate over negotiations for a ceasefire in the Ukraine war, Russia has ramped up its military pressure with attacks on Kiev and bolstering its stance around besieged cities ahead of yet another round of talks.
They are, in the words of an aide to President Volodymyr Zelensky, Olesky Arestovitch, “at a crossroads.” “Either we get right in the current talks, or the Russians will make a second attempt [de tomada de Kiev e submissão do paÃs] and then we will have conversations again,” he said.
The virtual meeting between the groups that discuss the terms for the end of the conflict takes place this Tuesday (15), after a “technical pause” announced by the Ukrainians on Monday. Prior to this week’s talks, there were three face-to-face rounds held in Belarus and an anticlimactic meeting of the countries’ foreign ministers in Turkey on Thursday (10).
Still with the military initiative despite the problems of their invasion, the Russians maintain phlegma. “The work is difficult and, given the situation, the fact that they continue is probably positive. We don’t want to make predictions, we expect results,” said Vladimir Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov.
In the dawn and morning of this Tuesday, the violence continued. Kiev has suffered attacks in residential areas and has decided on a curfew from tonight, for 36 hours, in anticipation of the eventual failure of talks and the start of a new Russian offensive.
Putin’s forces surround the city from the northeast and northwest, but have not closed it off completely — more troops and equipment are needed to do so. According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which tracks the civil war in the Moscow-backed Arab dictatorship, 40,000 volunteers have already signed up to fight in Ukraine.
The attacks took place hours before the arrival of the premiers of Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovenia, an unprecedented demonstration of support for Zelensky by Eastern European countries especially refractory to the Russians.
The delay in negotiations is predictable. The Kremlin wants the demilitarization of its neighbor, its renunciation of membership in NATO (Western military alliance) and the European Union and the recognition of the areas it lost to Russia (Crimea) and to separatists (Donbass) in 2014. Kiev suggests taking something in between. , but demands the immediate withdrawal of Russian forces, which would take the pressure exerted by Putin.
Meanwhile, the war has taken a more dangerous course since Sunday, when Russia attacked a training base and liaison between Ukrainian and NATO forces. In the second, US President Joe Biden again said that he does not want a confrontation with Moscow, as it would be “the Third World War” between nuclear powers.
There are additional problems for Zelensky. In the south of the country, where the Russian offensive has achieved more gains, there are reports that Moscow wants to promote a referendum in the Kherson region, seeking to transform it into yet another “people’s republic”, like the two in the Donbass (east of the country) .
With that, Putin’s reconnaissance roadmap would be given, including one more item in Kiev’s loss cart. For Russia, which applies a brutal siege to the port of Mariupol, everything that separates the creation of a land bridge between the Russian region of Rostov and the annexed Crimea, the design seems logical.
It remains, of course, to agree with the residents, which will not be verified in a vote taken at gunpoint – in 2014, the annexation of Crimea passed through such a plebiscite and was peaceful, although illegal according to the United Nations, as the region had a majority overwhelming number of Russians and belonged to Moscow until 1954.
The daily protests in Kherson, with residents showing courage in front of the National Guard, the praetorian troop of the Kremlin, prove that it will be a difficult job. It is yet another knot for the Russians, who face tactical problems and unanticipated resistance from the Ukrainian military.
In Donbass, whose forces seek to expand its border to the one historically associated with the region, the day is calmer for now. In the second, a ballistic missile launched by the OTR-21 Totchka system hit the center of Donetsk, capital of the self-proclaimed republic of the same name, killing more than 20 people.
Peskov complained about the West, saying that no one criticized Ukraine for the attack. Kiev denies responsibility, saying the Russians fired on its allies, a common Kremlin charge against what it calls “nationalist and neo-Nazi terrorists” who have infiltrated the neighboring military.
