Spaniards celebrate the start of the new year by eating twelve grapes, one for each month, but 2025 may be a bit sour grapes for Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez (PSOE/S&D).

This custom, believed to bring good luck, may be just what the Spanish prime minister needs in 2025, as two serious cases of alleged corruption could jeopardize the government’s long-term future.

The first is the “Koldo case”, involving one of Sánchez’s former associates, former transport minister José Luis Abalos, who allegedly received a 4 million euro kickback to buy protective masks during the pandemic.

The “Koldo case” reached its media climax on December 12, when Ambalos – who was expelled from the PSOE last February over the allegations – voluntarily appeared before Spain’s Supreme Court to plead his innocence.

“There was no such order,” the former minister said about the bribery allegations.

His former right-hand man, Coldo Garcia, who allegedly masterminded the plan for this and the scandal was named after him, also testified before the Court on December 17, denying the charges.

However, the ‘Koldo case’ is not Sanchez’s only concern for 2025.

The second case concerns his wife, Begonia Gometh. In April 2024, a Spanish judge launched an investigation into alleged influence peddling and corruption, following a complaint by the civil servants union Clean Hands.

The Union is associated with far-right forces, most notably Vox (PfE).

The case forced Sanchez to announce in late April 2024 that he would take a five-day leave to consider resigning, due to the pressure he and his family had come under after what he described as “false” far-right accusations.

Both political issues will remain the focus of media attention in 2025 and may further shake Sanchez and his fragile coalition government. However, they appear confident of ending the current term in August 2027.

“Eternal Repetition”

The cases have pushed Spain’s main opposition party, the center-right Spanish People’s Party (PP/EPP), and Vox to call for early elections.

They particularly politically exploit the differences of opinion between the PSOE and its partner Sumar, on issues such as the war in Ukraine or the conflict in Gaza, to show the fragility of the governing coalition.

In the last parliamentary debate of the year, PP leader Alberto Núñez Feijo urged Sánchez not to “play the victim in front of the judges”, while wryly summing up the prime minister’s legal troubles for 2024 by saying: “12 months, 12 legal cases.”

The opposition leader referred to various corruption investigations involving officials linked to the Socialists.

But it is recalled that Sánchez first came to power in 2018 after a successful motion of impeachment against the then Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy (PP) due to a serious corruption case weighing on the PP, known as “Gürtel”.

This was the first time a government had fallen in Spain since the end of Francisco Franco’s dictatorship.

The “Puigdemont problem”

Many political analysts predict that former Catalan president Carles Puigdemont, leader of the right-wing separatist party JxCat, will press Sanchez for more concessions.

While JxCat supported Sanchez’s re-election in 2023, Puigdemont has gradually moved closer to the PP and against Sanchez – as he has sided with center-right forces on several laws tabled in parliament by the PSOE.

He also recently threatened Sanchez with rejecting the 2025 budget. If the government does not approve the national budget for next year, “the normal thing would be for him not to continue” he (Sanchez) to carry out his duties, warned Puigdemont.

These threats are not new, as he has often expressed his displeasure with the government. It argues that Sanchez has not kept his commitments and could now demand more powers for Catalonia on immigration and tax policy in exchange for not leaving the government.

With all these clouds now gathering on his political horizon, one can understand that Sanchez will need twelve lucky grapes for 2025.