Greenland can be pictured as the “new frontier” over precious minerals and geopolitics, but Donald Trump should be “careful what he wishes for” in demanding control of the vast, remote and sparsely populated Arctic island.

The roughly 56,000 Greenlanders live in a self-governing country, with the former colonial Danish ruler overseeing their foreign policy and security. For decades, Greenlanders have aimed, or at least dreamed, of full independence. Prime Minister Mute Egende said earlier this week that Greenland is not for sale.

According to Ole Elekrog, a Danish journalist who has lived in Greenland, the locals remain dissatisfied with their relationship with Denmark. “Many Kalaallit (Greenlanders) who move to Denmark … are treated with great ignorance and arrogance by the Danish people,” he told Politico.

“It’s this growing resentment that has led many people in Greenland to feel ready to try something else,” observed Elekrog, who added that the strained relationship between the two sides opens the way for the likes of Trump to intervene. “perhaps out of ignorance, perhaps by cunning and purpose.”

Copenhagen also “foots the bill” for about half of the island’s budget, the most practical obstacle to independence for the otherwise shrimp-dependent economy.

“This is a bill that ranges roughly between 750 million and $1 billion a year,” John Rahbeck Clemmensen, an associate professor at the Royal Danish Defense College, said in an interview. “Donald Trump doesn’t like bad deals, does he?”

In other words, Greenland is a very expensive medium-sized municipality for Denmark. And Washington can already “do its job” free with the status quo.

European Union investment in Greenland is also far greater than that of the United States. Nevertheless, Brussels is taking a wait-and-see attitude.

“It is clear that the sovereignty of states must be respected,” European Commission spokeswoman Anita Hipper said during a press conference on Wednesday, adding that Brussels looked forward to working with the next US administration on “a stronger transatlantic agenda”.

While the Commission has a small delegation office in Nuuk, the Greenlandic capital, the vacancy of the EU Special Envoy for Arctic Affairs was only filled in the autumn, the Commission said.

US goals: Already a reality

Trump is forgetting something very important. The acquisition of Greenland – either by purchase or seizure – will not ia was actually improving Washington’s prospects. The US has three main objectives in Greenland, and these are being met well today. First of all, Pitufik Space Base (formerly known as Thule Air Base) is an essential military site for early warning systems and air power over the Arctic region.

Second, Greenland is actively courting investors to develop sustainable mining infrastructure for its rare earth mineral deposits and also potentially copper, silver, platinum and titanium. Prime Minister Egende has traveled to the US several times since he was elected in 2021 to attract private investment — but no American companies have made the jump.

Finally, the US wants to prevent Chinese infiltration. Under pressure from Washington, Copenhagen blocked a state-owned Chinese company from developing three airport projects on the island, saying such a prospect would pose a security risk.

Summarizing, Rahbek Clemensen, commented that “The US is already getting what it wants. And cheap.”

The curse of minerals

Greenland’s mineral resources become more accessible as climate change causes ice to melt — but actual projects are few and far between.

The most developed mine near the southern tip of the country, Quanershut, has been effectively shut down because its rare earth deposits are mixed with uranium. The company that owns the license has sued the Greenland government for $11 billion.
Other deposits are much smaller and inaccessible, meaning that their exploitation would require huge amounts of investment and a long time to develop.

Greenlandic voters will head to the polls no later than April, with Egent hinting during his New Year’s address that he may also propose a referendum on independence from Denmark. However, it is in a difficult position: mining can contribute to Greenland’s independence by replacing Denmark’s annual subsidy. But his constituents are also concerned about the potential environmental impact.

Denmark’s prime minister, Mette Fredriksen, conveniently put the question to Nuuk, cleverly hoping not to upset either Trump or the Greenlanders themselves. When Trump offered to buy the island, he qualified the statement “absurd”. But, not commenting further on what he saidFredriksen could be opening a diplomatic path for deeper US-Denmark-Greenland cooperation on the Arctic.

“When the storm passes, the US and Greenland could well to negotiate a new form of cooperation”, Elekrog concluded.