London, Thanasis Gavos
Ukraine’s proposal for a specialized system of security guarantees for the country in the context of talks to end the war has taken Western officials by surprise, according to a recent Financial Times article.
The British newspaper was the one that had revealed the Ukrainian claim for multilateral security guarantees in the context of a 15-point draft peace that is said to be discussed between Kyiv and Moscow.
The Ukrainian side reportedly wants the five permanent members of the Security Council as guarantors, including Russia, as well as Germany and Turkey.
The British newspaper emphasizes that such a treaty of guarantees according to the Ukrainian request would include something similar to Article 5 of NATO, ie a commitment to send troops to defend Ukraine in the event of a future threat to its territorial integrity. This means that if such guarantees were in place before the Russian invasion, Western powers, China and Turkey would have to intervene militarily.
The Financial Times writes that Western officials are questioning how such a model of guarantees would work and how it could be agreed between Ukraine and Russia without any commitments from possible guarantors.
A senior US defense official has said the United States is not involved in the negotiations. A senior European diplomat told the FT that he did not have a clear idea of ​​the logic of such an agreement. “The point of arrival is impossible. “I mean it is possible, but I do not understand why the Russians have been involved in all this war so far if that is what they want,” he added.
Another Western official says the terms of the guarantees are being discussed with international partners, but until they are finalized it is very difficult to say yes or no to the implementation and the participating countries.
Asked by UK Secretary of Defense Ben Wallace if his country could play a guarantor role in Ukraine, he said it was necessary to discuss the details of an agreement, not just its wording.
The FT publication also notes that the Ukrainians have rejected the proposal of the Kremlin spokesman Peshkov for a different model of security guarantees in the model of Austrian neutrality, as they consider military commitments a critical part of any agreement.
The importance that the Ukrainians attach to the military aspect of a security model is pointed out by the Austrian analyst Markus Hove from the risk consulting firm VE Insight.
He believes that the negotiations are just a smokescreen. Another Western intelligence official agrees, noting that since Soviet times the Russians have considered negotiation not a way to end the war, but part of it. “The talks are just a way of controlling the pace (of the war) to suit Russia’s needs,” he said.
In the same vein, Gustav Gressel of the Berlin-based European Council on Foreign Relations believes that the negotiations are just a tactic used by the Russians, who usually use them to sow discord on the other side and save time.
“I was always very cautious when the Russians were negotiating. We have seen it repeatedly in Syria. The West or the Turks went with high hopes that the Russians were ready to change their position and de-escalate, and it always proved that this was not the case. “It never takes long for things to fall apart and then they just restore their maximalist demands.”
Earlier in the week, British Foreign Secretary Liz Tras had expressed fears that the Ukraine talks were nothing more than a “deception game” by Putin.
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