Thanasis Gavos, London
A variety of more recent estimates of what is happening on Ukrainian soil are given by British military analysts.
The best known to the British television audience Professor Michael Clarka former director of the prestigious RUSI Institute for Military Analysis in London, commented on BBC radio that the Russians “make almost every tactical mistake that is likely to be made”.
As he explained, the Russian forces seem to have entered the battle “completely unprepared” and without having thought about what is required for a large military operation, as a result of which they are “humiliated” by the Ukrainian defense.
“The Ukrainians are delaying the Russian advance in all areas and are now even carrying out successful counterattacks. “The Russians are losing a lot of equipment and a lot of soldiers,” said the British professor of defense at King’s College.
He added that the Ukrainian system of command and control on the battlefield is NATO-level, as it was set up with the help of the Alliance after the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014.
Referring to the crash at the aircraft maintenance unit in Lviv, Professor Clark He said it was clear that the Russians were targeting infrastructure that would keep the Ukrainian air force operational. He added that it was also an attempt to “scare” the West in order to limit the flow of aid to Ukrainian forces.
As for the war on propaganda, Mr Clark commented that the Ukrainians were “sweeping the floor with the Russians in terms of international public opinion”.
The same time, RUSI analysts Sam Craney-Evans and Dr. Sindart Kausal They believe that the possible real goal of the Russian forces by bypassing Mykolaiv from the north of the city is not the direction to the West to occupy Odessa, but the encirclement of the Russian army in the east, in order to claim that Moscow has won the war. .
Their assessment is that Russian forces will continue to head north, passing Nikolaev, but then turn east to encircle the select Ukrainian forces deployed in the Donbas region.
They even say that the huge concentration of Russian forces in the Black Sea, which gives the impression of preparing an amphibious landing in Odessa, may be a distraction for the Ukrainians generals the real Russian intentions.
If this estimate is correct, then it is noted that Russia has changed its strategy and no longer considers the occupation of large cities as the critical military goal, but the encirclement of the large volume of Ukrainian army forces located in the east of the country. This would allow President Putin to claim that he has achieved the declared goal of “demilitarization” of Ukraine and to declare victory.
The two analysts point to the convergent movements of Russian battalions to the heart of eastern Ukraine from Kharkiv, Crimea and Donbas. To these moves they add the probable advance to the east from the area north of Mykolaiv.
They even warn that Western military officials may be too focused on preventing Russian occupation of cities such as Kyiv. They comment that it is as if the vision of the West is limited to a tunnel, without realizing the possible change in the Russian strategy.
Meanwhile, UK Undersecretary of Defense James Hippie said that attack on Lviv causes concern to the people of western Ukraine but also to the flow of supplies of Ukrainian forces.
He also said that the state-of-the-art British Starstreak anti-aircraft missile system would arrive in Ukraine very soon and that the training of Ukrainians in its handling had already begun.
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