Although with a social -democratic “stamp”, the next German government will probably not rush to modify the “debt brake”. Comment by Yiannis Papadimitriou.

Everyone is in a hurry to form the new government in Germany after the February 23 election. But they probably don’t hurry so much that they can’t wait another week. What are they waiting for? The local elections in Hamburg on March 2which will probably stimulate the shaken confidence of the Social Democrats (SPD).

The SPD in the federal elections may have recorded the worst percentage of the last 138 years, but the “big port” remains its own stronghold. Today’s Mayor Peter Chester will probably be re -elected on Sunday, recalling the special weight of the moderate (others say “the conservative”) wing of the SPD, from which, as a rule, candidates for the Chancellor or Foreign Affairs are derived.

‘Key’ the Ministry of Finance

“Who is the new Foreign Minister?” The older “international” after every election in Germany or any other major European country, considering reasoning that the first examples of the new government would come from there. But at the time of Euro-crisis, priorities changed and everyone started asking “who is the new Minister of Finance?” Not unjustly.

Today we are in a similar context. The fiscal failure has led to the collapse of the outgoing government of the Social Democrat Odf Saltz, fiscal sustainability will judge the endurance of the next, under Christian Democrat Friedrich Mertz. The foreign portfolio is not negligible, but it is not the top. Particularly considering that Mertz reserves a reinforced role for himself as a “Foreign Chancellor”. In other words, he intends to personally pursue the upgrading of Germany’s international role and the conclusion of alliances in and out of the EU, as Helmut Kol.

Under these circumstances, no other ministry is considered as important in today’s situation as the Portfolio of Finance. The first names are already heard. According to Handelsblatt’s financial inspection, the Social Democrats Lars Klingbail and Karsten Schneider, Christian Democrat Yen Span and Bavarian Christian Socialist Alexander Dobrid, are not excluded by the ” Technocrat, but does not have particularly strong political foundations.

The dilemma of ‘debt’

Behind the “nomenclature” lies an essential dilemma: Will the Social Democrats be able to take over the key to the key to keep the “keys” of the budget and to launch changes to the “debt brake”? Or will the Christian Democrats, who have the first reason in the negotiation anyway, to return to a “Schoeble era” with a commitment to fiscal discipline?

The second version would advise Yens Span’s candidacy for the Ministry of Finance. It is generally acknowledged one of the greatest political talents of his generation and had “served” for three years as Deputy Minister of Finance under Schoeble. “In anticipation” is characterized by the Tagesspiegel newspaper in Berlin. During the Euro-Crisis, Span had openly stated that the Treasury was of great importance to his party, as it “produces authentic Christian democratic policy”.

However, the latest statements by Mertz himself also advocate the obsession with fiscal discipline. On the one hand, it makes it clear that there is no fiscal relaxation “in the near future” and on the other it reinstates the proposal to set up a new Special Defense Fund and even from the outgoing House, before even taking over the “reins” of the country.

As the establishment of a Special Fund requires a parliamentary majority of 2/3, the Merz proposal may conceal the intention of ending the pending as soon as possible, without the need for the partnership of the far -right party “Alternative for Germany” (AFD). But it is a common secret in Berlin that anyone who chooses the solution of the Special Fund to modernize the Armed Forces is probably rejecting a relaxation on the “debt brake”.