“The Ball in Russia”: With this phrase Americans, Ukrainians and Europeans have turned all their eyes to Moscow, awaiting its response to the US proposal for a ceasefire in Ukraine after yesterday’s discussions in Jeddah.

After more than three years of war, Ukraine agreed yesterday to a 30 -day ceasefire that would enter into force if Russia signs the same terms. A US delegation is already going to Russia to begin discussions in order to achieve peace in the region as the US president announced earlier today, while warning Moscow with “devastating” economic consequences if he does not agree.

But the question is What does Russia really think and whether it is likely to accept Trump’s terms. At the moment, Moscow has maintained a waiting attitude until it has a full information on what was discussed and agreed in Jeddah. “We must first receive this information. We have also planned contacts with the Americans in the coming days, during which we expect to receive full information. ” was the reaction of the Kremlin’s representative, Dmitry Peskov to a question by journalists.

“The position of the Russian Federation does not take place abroad due to some agreements or efforts of some parties. The Russian Federation is shaped within the Russian Federation. “ For her part, the Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman emphasized, Maria Sakharova.

The Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov He reiterated that Russia would not accept NATO soldiers in Ukraine if there is a permanent agreement on peace. It has also been clear that Russia ‘Will never sell’ Ukrainian territories which holds – about 20% of Ukraine as well as that it will not agree with a temporary interruption of hostilities at a time when Russian forces are gaining territories, as this would allow exhausted Ukrainian troops to take a break and rest.

This careful approach to Russia reflects Putin’s awareness that a raw rejection of the American proposal could overturn trial efforts to normalize Russia-US ties. It is even very likely himself to seek his own termsas analysts explain.

What does Putin want?

The basic goals Vladimir Putin remains the same as those he said when he launched the attack on Ukraine on February 24, 2022: Ukraine resign from NATO integration, drastically cut her army and protect her Russian language and culture. In addition, he wants Kiev to withdraw his powers from the four areas that Moscow has occupied, but which does not fully control them.

Russian officials have also stated that any possible peace agreement should include the “defrosting” of Russian assets from the West and the removal of some other sanctions imposed by the US and the EU.

Putin has also repeatedly emphasized the need to “remove the deeper causes of the crisis”, a reference to the Kremlin’s requirement to revoke NATO’s military potential near the Russian border, which he describes as a significant threat to his safety.

The Kremlin leader argued that Ukraine President Volodimir Zelenski, whose term expired last year, did not have the legality of signing a peace agreement. Kiev, for its part, argues that the elections are impossible to hold in the midst of war. But Trump has also referred to the need for elections in Ukraine.

What else could Moscow require?

But instead of Vladimir Putin completely rejecting the proposed truce, he could set his own terms.

The commentator who supports Kremlin Sergei Markov said Moscow could agree on a truce if Ukraine’s allies stop weapons supplies in Kiev. The US said they had resumed arms missions and exchanging information with Kiev to the agreement they set up in Saudi Arabia.

“Russia could say” yes, but “in the ceasefire, accepting a 30 -day truce provided that we will be imposed on the supplies of weapons in Ukraine,” Markov wrote.

Another wish of Moscow is the presidential election in Ukraine, which would be possible after Ukraine’s martial law was lifted.

“Peace would allow Russia to influence Ukrainian policy and use peaceful means to secure friendly relations,” Markov said.

Moscow -based foreign policy expert Alexei Naumov also predicted that Russia would probably accept a ceasefire proposal if it leads to elections in Ukraine.

“There is a paradox in these conversations and peace initiatives – Ukraine and Russia are claiming Donald Trump’s attention and seek to improve their positions with his help,” Naumov said.

Sam Green of the Washington -based European Policy Analysis Center said it would be difficult to imagine Putin saying a categorical “no” to a ceasefire proposal, adding that the Kremlin leader “has already succeeded in somehow” sanctions as “big wins” for Russia.

Putin’s statements against the temporary truce merely mean that Russia “is not likely to agree on a ceasefire without setting its terms along the way,” Green said, adding that Moscow has every reason to believe that if all this ends somewhere then the one will come out of the way,