At a time when all eyes are on Ukrainethe mediators are trying to avoid escalating into a new war in political stalemate in Libya.
The country that is already divided between two rival governments in the east and west, Libya since the beginning of March and with two rival governments, as in the period 2014-2021, when the country was in the middle of a civil war after the overthrow of regime of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011.
The government presented by former Interior Minister Fati Basagato which approved by parliament based in eastern Libya, is in conflict with the government based in Tripoli which was formed in the framework of the agreements signed under the auspices of the UN under Abdelhamid Dibaybawho refuses to hand over powerif not first elections.
After all, Basaga formed his government after he allied himself with the powerful man of eastern Libya, Marshal Khalifa Haftarwhich supports Moscow.
On March 10 armed groups supporting Basaga took up position outside Tripoli to support him, raising fears of a resurgence of hostilities and the collapse of the ceasefire that has been in force since October 2020.
“Lost bet”
“Basaga bet on the policy of the accomplished, he was convinced that having the confidence of the parliament (…) he will be able to easily step aside the government supported by the international community. “But he quickly realized that it was a lost bet.” Khaled al-Montasser Professor of International Relations at the University of Tripoli.
THE envoy of UN Secretary-General for Libya Stephanie Williams and US Ambassador Richard Norland had to make a strong diplomatic effort to de-escalate tensions after the mobilization of the armed groups supporting Basaga and since then trying to promote a way out of the crisis through negotiation.
Last week the major forces of the Security Council appeared very prudent during the UN meeting, avoiding supporting one side or the other. It was an exception Russia, which actively supported Basha’s new government.
“Libya’s executive branch is facing a crisis that, if left unresolved, could lead to instability and parallel governments in the country,” she said. Rosemary DiCarlo Deputy Secretary-General for Political Affairs at the beginning of the Security Council meeting.
“Death”
“The international community, and especially the United States, does not want to see a resurgence of the conflict in Libya, especially in the current context of the Russian-Ukrainian war,” he said. political analyst Faraz al Dali.
Although envoys and diplomats do not consider it possible at this stage Russia to put pressure on Haftar to help oust Basaga’s government in Tripoli, some analysts say Moscow could use its influence to disrupt Libya’s oil production and maintain market pressure.
Groups loyal to Haftar did indeed threaten last week that will close oil stations in eastern Libyaat a time when industrialized nations are pushing for members of Opec, which owns Libya, to increase production to reassure the market.
“Regardless of any Russian influence, the use of military force is” theoretically possible “for Basaga because he could rely on armed groups in western Libya,” Montasser said.
But that would mean the “death” of his government as it would push it into “an armed conflict that could last for months or even years,” he warned.
Given that both sides they have everything to lose and nothing to gain from the resurgence of hostilities, “a political dialogue” remains the most logical way to reach a compromise “through some concessions” on both sides, he concludes.
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