Almost a month after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the diplomatic war between the Kremlin and the United States has escalated several steps on the eve of the meeting of NATO (western military alliance) leaders on Thursday (24).
After being accused of preparing hack attacks against US companies and plotting the use of chemical weapons against Ukrainian targets by President Joe Biden, the Kremlin said the US government embraces “banditry” in international relations.
Biden had made his accusations, already a tone above the usual for being treated as certainties and not speculations, on Monday night (22). This Tuesday, came the reaction of the Kremlin. “Unlike many Western countries, including the US, Russia does not engage in banditry at the state level,” said spokesman Dmitri Peskov.
The case of weapons of mass destruction has gained momentum. Russia accuses the US of setting up a network of laboratories to study biological agents in Ukraine without evidence. The White House and NATO claim that this is an excuse used by the Russians to eventually use weapons, chemicals in this case, in the war.
That would be, Western analysts speculate, because of Putin’s perceived difficulty in winning the war quickly. At this point, the general offensive is stalled around some major cities, such as Kiev, although it maintains the initiative in points like the south of the country.
For the Institute of War Studies, an NGO in Washington, the Russians are already taking defensive positions in some places, which suggests a willingness to try to win the war by attrition, destroying Kiev’s numerically inferior forces.
In this scenario, there is speculation about the use of a chemical weapon or even a low-power tactical nuclear bomb to subjugate Ukraine. Eastern NATO members such as Poland say this would be unacceptable and would require intervention.
So far, the alliance is only supplying Kiev with weapons and money. Requests to close airspace or deploy fighter jets were denied, on the grounds that this would be seen as a declaration of war on the Russians. And that could evolve into a worldwide conflict between nuclear powers.
In any case, the pressure inside NATO is high. With Biden’s warnings, it is possible to foresee that Thursday’s meeting in Brussels, which he was due to attend in person, should make a clearer threat to the Kremlin, trying to delimit Putin’s actions. It is uncertain that this will work.
Also on Tuesday, Peskov was pessimistic about the progress of negotiations with Kiev, saying Ukraine needs to be “more active and substantive” in the talks.
The aftershocks of the crisis follow around the world. At the corporate event where he warned of the risk of cyber and chemical warfare, Biden admitted that ally India is reticent to act against the Kremlin.
The US, India, Australia and Japan make up the Quad alliance, which aims to contain Chinese expansion in the Indo-Pacific. Two weeks ago, the group met and warned Beijing not to look at the autonomous island of Taiwan the way Putin looked at Ukraine.
The reincorporation of Taiwan, peacefully or by force, is part of Chinese state policy. And Xi Jinping’s government is Russia’s closest ally, although it has exercised extreme caution in the crisis, seeking to rest on its laurels for a peaceful solution.
Biden said the Quad’s response included Japan and Australia as “pretty strong” on Putin, while India “is somewhat shaky” — New Delhi did not condemn the war. Indians are the biggest customers of Russian weapons in the world, taking 28% of Moscow’s exports in the sector from 2017 to 2021, and with that they maintain the independence speech.
But the alliance with the US is funneling things, especially as India has border and economic disputes with China. The American exit from Afghanistan also made the regional ballet explicit, as Pakistan is Beijing’s biggest ally in Asia and has strong interests in the renewed Taliban regime.
Finally, Japan harshly criticized Russia for leaving the peace talks, which have dragged on since the end of World War II, over the status of the disputed Kuril Islands, partly taken by the Soviets. The Kremlin says the Japanese’s adoption of Western sanctions prevents the talks from continuing.
