With less than three weeks to go before the presidential elections in France, the forces of the left, which five years ago ruled the second largest economy in the European Union (EU), account for 25% of voting intentions.
The main legends of the spectrum, weakened and divided, are struggling to regain their breath in the face of a growing populist right. If the 2017 formula is repeated, the one who could emerge strengthened from this equation will again be Emmanuel Macron, the youngest president in the country’s history, who has taken domestic and international political capital from diplomacy around the war in Ukraine.
The possibility of a united front of the left, supported by many voters as an alternative to oxygenate this path, was rejected by the parties. Thus, a quarter of the votes are crumbled among the main leftist parties, without any of them gathering the necessary support, so far, for a second round.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon (Unsubmissive France) leads the spectrum. With 14% of voting intentions, however, the politician from the traditional Socialist Party is behind the names that emerge in the electoral race: Macron (Republic on the March, center), with 28%, and Marine Le Pen (National Meeting, from far right), with 18.5%.
The other leftists are stationed below 10%: MEP Yannick Jadot (Greens, 5.5%), MP Fabien Roussel (Communist Party, 4%) and the mayor of the capital Paris, Anne Hidalgo (Socialist Party, 2%) , according to the most recent survey by Ifop (French Institute of Public Opinion).
Over the last few weeks, a movement that still lacks institutional support from the other acronyms has been put into practice by França Insubmissa: asking left-wing voters and those who intend to abstain —voting is not mandatory in the country— to cast a useful vote for Mélenchon, in order to take the left to the second round.
“Each person is personally responsible for the outcome of the election, because each person holds the key to the second round, which opens the door to a better society,” the candidate said at a rally on Sunday (20). It is still difficult, however, to measure how successful the attempt to gather enough votes will be.
For local analysts, the weakening of the French left had very clear reasons: in the face of the changes brought about by globalization and by migratory waves, the parties did not know how to reinvent their programs, they underestimated the ability of the populist right to present answers to society and, little by little, waned. , its ability to dialogue with the working class.
“Especially the Socialist Party, which was very comfortable in the exercise of power, did not know how to reinvent an ideological primer”, says Jean-Yves Camus, political analyst and researcher at the Institute of International and Strategic Relations. “We all underestimate the ideological ability of the right to take advantage of problems such as insecurity, terrorist attacks and globalization.”
Pascal Perrineau, professor at SciencesPo in Paris, reads similarly. He says that in recent years there has been a shift in French society to the right. Several reasons explain the movement, but Perrineau draws attention to one: the migratory phenomena, which are sensitive in the country.
“The left is embarrassed by this question, does not present a homogeneous answer and, thus, moves away from the problems of the working classes”, he says. “And it has also so far failed to find a credible answer to questions of globalization and the welfare state, which has left the right to occupy ideological terrain that has been left vacant.”
From this vacuum emerge what analysts describe as figures of political rupture. “The French are increasingly uncomfortable with the old divide between left and right and are looking for an alternative.”
Eric Zemmour (Reconquista), an ultra-right polemicist with no political trajectory who launched himself as a candidate with an anti-Islam agenda, would be the main example. He has 13% of voting intentions — he is 4th in the electoral race — and has managed to wreak havoc on Le Pen’s base.
The two, although they share the camp of the populist right, are quite different, according to Gilles Ivaldi, a researcher at SciencesPo specializing in the radical right.
There would be three main factors that differentiate the rightists: 1) economic program (Le Pen with proposals aimed at the working classes and Zemmour for the petty bourgeoisie); 2) electoral strategy (Le Pen seeking a moderate speech and Zemmour with radical agendas); 3) the long-term strategy (Le Pen wants to garner broad support, including from the left base, while Zemmour aims to prevail in the right camp).
Perrineau says that Macron has also symbolized the alternative for those who were unwilling to vote for the traditional left (Socialists) or the right (Republicans). In 2017, he won the second round against Le Pen with almost twice as many votes as the far-right – 20.7 million against 10.6 million – in what was the first election in modern French history without any candidate from the traditional acronyms being chosen. beyond the first round.
Since then, experts agree, the Republicans (of ex-president Nicolas Sarkozy, who in 2022 will run against Valérie Pécresse) have been unable to regain part of their electorate that has migrated to the far right, and the Socialists (of ex-president François Hollande) failed to update their program of proposals. An option on the left, which would have demanded more dialogue and possible alliances between the parties, also failed.
“The idea of ​​a single candidacy for the left is utopian because the left doesn’t think the same way on a large number of issues. economic agenda”, says Jean-Yves Camus.
The conflict in Ukraine exemplifies some of the differences. While other leftist leaders promptly criticized Vladimir Putin’s government and asked Moscow for sanctions, Jean-Luc Mélenchon was slow to do so. Even when he did, he presented disagreement on a point that, for the other candidates, does not seem central: he defends that France leave NATO (Western military alliance).
So far, local polls suggest Macron and Le Pen will contest the second round, once again without the left. In this scenario, the question remains whether voters will be willing to vote for the centrist to block the presence of the far right in power.
If Mélenchon succeeds in his attempt at a useful vote, the sector will have the challenge of making voters give up the center and prioritize the return of the left to the Élysée Palace.
