Kremlin invests in reinforcing its military force, aiming to renegotiate European security architecture
As the United States and other world leaders are absorbed by the situation in Ukraine, Russia is quietly proceeding in a large military restructuring along its borders with Europe, the Wall Street Journal said in its analysis.
About 100 miles east of the border with Finland, in the Russian city of Petrozavonsk, army engineers are expanding military bases, where the Kremlin plans to create a new headquarters for the supervision of tens of thousands of soldiers in the coming years.
These soldiers, many of whom are currently serving on the fronts of Ukraine, are intended to be the backbone of a Russian army preparing for a confrontation with NATO, according to Western military and intelligence officials. The Kremlin intensifies recruitment, enhances weapons production and upgrades rail lines in the border areas.
Military analysts within Russia characterize activities along the border with Finland as part of the Kremlin preparation for a possible conflict with NATO.
Russian officials, however, send conflicting messages. At a meeting of the Ministry of Defense at the end of last year, Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belusov said the Russian army should be ready for a clash with NATO. At the same meeting, President Vladimir Putin said that the West is unjustly concerned about its population by highlighting the narrative that Russia is ready to attack, and that current tensions are the result of NATO’s policy.
The Kremlin is increasing its military potential to 1.5 million soldiers and has more than doubled its military spending, reaching 6% of GDP – much higher than 3.4% of the US and 2.1% of Europe.
Recruitment and equipment increase
The increase in expenditure has prompted Russian arms factories to maximize their productive capacity, leading military industrial companies to expand production lines and open new facilities, according to European military officials.
In 2021, before the invasion, Russia produced about 40 T-90M combat tanks per year, according to Western Intelligence Estimates. Today it produces almost 300 per year. A senior Finnish military official said almost none of these tanks were sent to the Ukraine front; they remain on Russian territory for future use.
The production of cannons and ammunition is expected to increase by about 20% this year, while quality and production of drones have improved significantly.
In a report in February, the Danish Intelligence Service warned that Russia could launch a large -scale war in Europe over the next five years, if it considers NATO shows weakness. A ceasefire in Ukraine would allow Russia to prepare its military potential even faster, Western military officials warn.
Some NATO Member States are already reinforcing their borders against the tanks, digging trenches and installing obstacles in the shape of a pyramid. Poland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have been withdrawn from the International Treaty on Milk.
Western officials have reported secret businesses believed to have carried out Russia in recent years in Europe as evidence of Moscow’s determination to destabilize the West and to reject it in Ukraine.
It is believed that the Russian Military Intelligence Service is behind plans for installing arson mechanisms on aircraft of the DHL shipping company and the attempted murder of the Managing Director of German Arms Company.
An intelligence official said Russia could attempt to test the cohesion of the alliance with an invasion of a small NATO member country, such as Estonia, which has a significant Russian population.
Russia’s ability to face NATO will partly depend on whether it will be able to rebuild its forces after the War in Ukraine, which has decimated its officers’ body but has provided her with precision attacks.
Military revival
For centuries, Russia’s military force had made it one of Europe’s great powers. He managed to defeat both Napoleon and Hitler when they invaded Russian territory. The entry of the Soviet Union into World War II changed the course of the conflict and paved the way for the Cold War that followed.
Putin derives from this military heritage to justify the war in Ukraine and Russia’s efforts to recover in Europe, where former allies such as Ukraine have turned to the West. Russia seems to bet that its military expansion along NATO border will force the West to renegotiate with a reinforced Moscow.
To gather its forces to the West, the Kremlin changed the structure of its military forces inside the country last year, creating new military regions associated with the defense of the two largest cities, Moscow and St. Petersburg.
In the Moscow Military District, Russia has begun to integrate the road and rail routes used by its army with those of neighboring Belarus, Moscow’s narrower ally and a key point for the initial invasion of Ukraine.
Most of the military expansion will take place in the Leningrad military, which borders Estonia, Latvia and Finland.
According to Western military and secret officials, the smaller brigades will almost triple in size and convert into divisions of about 10,000 soldiers.
Russia plans to build new barracks and training centers, as well as to upgrade the arsenals and railways in order to support the swelling of troops in and around Petrozavonsk.
In December, Russian state television broadcast images of about 100 Russian soldiers marching in the city center, celebrating the re -establishment of a Soviet Railway Brigade, which has undertaken the placement of new rails.
The new infrastructure included includes troop warehouses and residences, according to Emil Castehelmi of the Finnish Black Bird Group, which analyzes satellite images of Russian military installations. New rails are placed along the border with Finland and Norway, as well as south of St. Petersburg to the border with Estonia. The existing lines crossing the area are expanding.
To accommodate more troops, the Russian Ministry of Defense has announced that it is renovating a 19th -century military hospital in St. Petersburg.
Recruitment campaign
In recent months, Russia has seen a sharp increase in recruitment, due to generous signature bonuses at both federal and local level. These payments, in some cases, can reach up to $ 20,000.
The United States estimates that about 30,000 Russians are ranked each month, compared to about 25,000 last summer. Some Eastern European intelligence officials report that military classes are now increasing by about 40,000 troops a month.
The extra human resources has allowed the Russian army to alternate new troops in Ukraine and to form new units, trained and established in Russian territory, according to estimates of European intelligence services.
To enhance the recruitment, Russia’s federal and regional governments have increased the privileges for veterans and their families and invited soldiers to participate in councils and in the Russian Duma.
Russia adapts its re -equipment plans to meet the needs of the new troops that will park along the NATO border. These units will receive much of the new equipment.
On the contrary, on the front of Ukraine there are mainly old and refurbished Soviet weapons.
Later this year, Russia is expected to present the first steps of this process in its annual strategic military exercises. This year’s exercises – named Zapad (West) – are expected to train forces in areas bordering NATO countries.
Military officials in NATO’s eastern wing are awaiting a demonstration of power to prevent Europe from further escalating tensions with Russia. Regardless of the cessation of cessation talks, they note, the Kremlin seeks to take it seriously in Europe.
Source :Skai
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