The financial repayment from the Ukraine – USA -based minerals agreement is likely to last a decade or moreas investors face many obstacles to start production of new mines in the country affected by war.

The development of mines that produce strategically significant minerals in countries with established mining sectors, such as Canada and Australia, can last 10 to 20 years, Reuters mining consultants told Reuters.

However, most mineral deposits in Ukraine have little evidence to confirm that they are financially viable. Investors may also hesitate to channel money into a country where infrastructure, such as energy and transport, have been destroyed by the three -year Russian invasion and future security is not guaranteed.

“If one suddenly thinks that all these minerals will leave by flying from Ukraine, he dreams,” said Adam Webb, chief of minerals at Consulting Company Benchmark Minerals Intelligence.

“The reality is that it will be difficult for people to justify the investment of money there when there are options for investment in critical minerals in countries that are not in war.”

While the financial benefits of the deal are uncertain, Ukraine officials have greeted it as political progress: they believe it will help to strengthen US support for Kiev, which has been shaken by President Trump.

Ukraine needs US support – especially weapons and money – to resist Russia.

On the US side, Trump strongly promoted the deal, especially the access to Ukraine’s rare land deposits, which are used in all, from mobile phones to cars. Thus, government policy could accelerate investment.

The text describes in detail 55 minerals as well as oil, gas and other hydrocarbons. According to Ukrainian data, the country has deposits of 22 of the 34 minerals designated by the European Union as critical, including rare land, lithium and nickel.

“The transition from a discovered resource to an economically sustainable stock requires significant time and investment, which both have been limited, not only since the start of the war but also before it,” said Willis Thomas of the CRU consulting firm.

Data from the Ukrainian Ministry of Finance showed that in 2024, the Ukrainian state won 47.7 billion gulf, or about $ 1 billion, in rights and other fees related to the exploitation of natural resources.

However, the joint fund created under the agreement will only receive revenue from new licenses, approvals and distribution agreements that will be established after the entry into force of the agreement.

Slow rate of mining permits

Ukraine was slow to issue new natural resources permits before Russia’s total invasion in 2022. From 2012 to 2020, about 20 licenses were issued for oil and gas, one for graphite, one for gold, two for manganese and one for copper, according to the Ukrainian Geological Survey. There are a total of 3,482 existing licenses.

Since the agreement creates a limited partnership, the two countries may consider the possibility of immediate state investment in a mining company, analysts said.

Chile, the world’s largest copper producer and owner of the state -owned Codelco mining company, could be an example to follow, Adam Webb said.

Another obstacle is that some potentially lucrative projects are found on land held by Russia and the agreement does not include any security guarantee. Washington has stated that the presence of US interests will prevent attackers.

Seven of the 24 possible mining projects found by Benchmark are located in Ukraine -held areas occupied by Russia and include lithium, toner, rare lands, nickel and manganese.

An official of a small Ukrainian company holding the license for the Lithium Paulochibas deposit, one of the largest in Europe, told Reuters in February that it would be difficult to develop without Western security guarantees.

“The agreement links the US more closely with Ukraine, as they now have a slightly larger interest in ending this war so that they can develop these assets,” Webb said.