The last time India and Pakistan were involved in a military conflict, in 2019, US officials found plenty of mobility in their nuclear arsenal to mean alarm. The then US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeohe woke up in the night and, as he wrote in his memoirs, “contacted both sides by phone that the other was not preparing for nuclear war.”

As the New York Times reports, that conflict quickly declined after the initial clashes. But six years later, the two opponents of South Asia are again in a military confrontation, following the many terrorist attack on tourists in Indian controlled Kashmir. But this time there has been a new element of uncertainty: the most important military alliances in the region have been remodeled.

India and Pakistan have reshaped their equipment strategy during the periods: 2006–2010 and 2020–2024.

India:

Russia: from 75% (2006–2010) fell to 36% (2020–2024)
France: increase from 2% to 33%
Israel: from 6% to 13%
USA: from 2% to 10%

India is shifting from Russia to Western allies.

Pakistan:

China: from 36% to 81%, making it almost exclusive supplier
US and France: from 7% and 6% respectively to 0%
Netherlands: Appears with 6% in 2020–2024

Pakistan now depends almost completely on China, with a drastic reduction in western supplies.

The changing weapons flows reflect the new geopolitical alignments in this particularly unstable corner of Asia, where three nuclear forces, India, Pakistan and China, coexist in a fragile balance.

India, traditionally unbounded, has reshaped its cautious attitude towards the United States and now buys military equipment worth billions of dollars from the US and other western suppliers. At the same time, it has drastically reduced the markets of cheap Russian weapons, despite the long -term relationship with Russia since the Cold War.

Pakistan, whose strategic significance for the US has declined after the end of the war in Afghanistan, no longer buys US equipment that once encouraged it to acquire. On the contrary, he turned almost exclusively to China for his military supplies.

These new alliances have introduced the logic of the Great Powers into the longest and most intractable conflict of South Asia.