When India and Pakistan agreed to a truce on Saturday, taking behind the brink of a total war, both rival forces declared victory.

But in Pakistan, analysts said, excitement can blur a clear assessment of how the last aerial collision, the most serious since both countries have acquired nuclear weapons, has overturned the regional balance.

India has not hidden its plans to change the “rules of the game” and, in a way, it has already done so with its air raids on Wednesday deeply in the Pakistani territory, which cost more than 20 people. It has publicly stated that the next time fighters attack Indian territory in Kashmir, Pakistan should expect a similar – if not more intense – military response.

“What was a stoppage has become a doctrine,” said Adjai Bisaria, a former Indian High Commissioner in Pakistan.

As Indian Prime Minister Narendra Monti is already facing internal criticism of the truce deal, which has so far been largely adhered to, may feel pressure and escalate the next time the tension is increased, according to analysts.

On Monday, in his first public statements about the conflict, Modi said the India operation last week “set a new line in the fight against terrorism. He set a new standard – a new regularity. “

Fragile tranquility does not seem to have been perceived in Pakistan, where the main newspaper articles and politicians have spoken of a weekend triumph. During the Army press conference on Sunday night, Vice -Commander Uraneb Ahmed said that with the “reconstitution of deterrence”, Pakistan prevented India from “imposing a new regularity”.

Officials in Islamabad continued to triumph over the downing of Indian warplanes on Wednesday as proof of Chinese technology supremacy over India’s most expensive western equipment. The Washington Post Analysis shows that at least two French -made Indian fighters appear to have been crashed in the first wave of attacks. Pakistan claims to have overthrew five fighters, a claim that India neither confirms nor denies. New Delhi says he achieved his military goals and killed “100 terrorists”.

India was wrong on Wednesday when “a rocket attack on a nuclear -equipped country was launched without considering the consequences, without carefully climbing the steps of escalation,” said former Pakistani Foreign Minister Hina Rammpani Car.

“He was not able to defend himself against retaliation and underestimated Pakistan’s will and ability to answer,” he added. “For us, India’s belief has collapsed. More weapons do not mean superiority – it matters how you use them. “

Najam Seth, an experienced Pakistani journalist, considers the triumphant tone premature and potentially dangerous: “The Pakistanis celebrate their success and are not preparing for the next attack … I am terrified to be honest.”

Above the festivities is to recognize how serious the clashes in their final phases took place, especially on Saturday morning, when India hit multiple military bases in Pakistan, including one in Ravalpidi, the headquarters of the Armed Forces. The attacks caused extensive retaliation from Pakistan on military targets within India.

At some point, Pakistan’s state -run strategic weapons committee, responsible for the nuclear arsenal, was summoned for consultations with the prime minister, according to Pakistani officials, causing concern in the US.

“We have transferred to the US that the situation is now very serious,” said Maliha London, a former Pakistani ambassador to the US. “The US saw on their own that the attack on the base of Ravalpidi was too close to be able to ignore it … We were on the brink of total war.”

Later on Saturday, US President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire with US mediation. Foreign Minister Marco Rubio wrote on the X platform that India and Pakistan also agreed to “start talks on a wider range of issues on neutral ground”, enhancing hopes for resolving fundamental differences, including the regime.

However, both India and Pakistan describe this week’s forthcoming talks as techniques and low -level. “There is no indication that the talks that the US wants, which we welcome, will take place soon,” London said, accusing India’s “reluctance”. Indian officials have not commented on the possibility of wider negotiations.

India waited until Monday to announce the reopening of 32 airports that had been closed last week. Srinagar, the largest city in the Indians Kashmir, was still recovering from the wave of attacks with drones and explosions. Her popular gardens, usually filled with tourists, were deserted.

In the city of Surancot, in the Pounts area, where camps were set up for displaced by the border, there is skepticism for the truce. “The dilemma is whether we have to come back or wait,” resident Saimi Tsondri said.

In New Delhi, analysts and commentators said the Indian leadership did not seem to be discouraged by the Pakistani military response.

India has made it clear that serious terrorist attacks will now cause heavy military responses, said Adjai Sani, executive director of the Institute of Conflict Management in New Delhi.

“I believe that the nature of businesses and the depth of the attacks will force terrorist groups and their supporters in Pakistan to adapt, since they will no longer be able to act with impunity,” he said, adding that this could lead to underground action.

Pakistan has denied any involvement in last month’s massacre by armed in a tourist area in Pachalgam, in the Indians, which claimed the lives of 26 people, the most murderous attack on Indian civilians for more than 15 years. While India said its first raids in Pakistan on Wednesday targeted terrorist facilities as retaliation for the attack on Pacalgam, Pakistan said the victims were civilians.

In the last decade, every conflict about Kashmir has become more bloody – and closer to total war – said Christopher Clari, Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Olympiani and a former South Asian expert.

In 2019, after a suicide bomb attack that killed more than 40 Indian paramilitaries, India launched an air attack in a 60km remote area. Wednesday’s aerial attack has expanded to Punjab areas for the first time in decades, while Saturday’s attack on Ravalpindi was a breath away from the Pakistani capital.

Bisaria, a former India High Commissioner in Pakistan, said India’s attacks last week hit Pakistan “more decisively, more visible” and established “a new balance”.

The next time India feels that it has to impose this new balance, some experts are worried that its army may rely even more on missiles to avoid new aviation errors.

“There is a very real danger that there will be a new attack and we will be on the brink of war again,” Clary said. “We do not have many conflicts between nuclear -equipped states to know how dangerous this deadly game is.”