Since Friday, the same dramatic exchanging fire has been carried out over half a dozen times over the sky of Israel: a storm of Iranian ballistic missiles is approaching. A storm of Israeli defenses of defensive rockets gets up to neutralize most, but not all, from the incoming hell.
A key question is about how long each side can continue. The answer can affect how long the conflict can last.
Israeli intelligence officials estimated that Iran had about 2,000 missiles capable of traveling 1,200 miles to hit Israel, but a significant part of them was destroyed as Israel’s secret agents in Iran and its fighters were launching its fighters.
Since then, Israeli military officials have argued that Iran has launched about 400 missiles from the remaining stock and Israeli blows have neutralized 120, or one -third, of Iran’s launchers. In addition, Israeli officials announced on Monday that they have gained air superiority over Tehran earlier than the timetable, which means they can further limit the ability of Iranian forces to launch.
Already, the intensity of Iran’s missile fires seems to be reduced abruptly. After launching more than 150 missiles on the first night of the collision on Friday, Iran fired a barrage of just 10 rockets on Tuesday afternoon.
“Iran must make a very, very difficult calculation because it has a limited number of rockets and, taking into account the pace of fire, cannot replenish it in real time,” said Fabian Hinz, a military analyst of the International Institute of Strategic Studies. Hinz noted that even the 150 rockets launched on Friday night were fewer than the 200 that launched Iran to Israel in October in retaliation for the murder of Israel’s leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah.
Even so, Israeli analysts warn that more than half of Iran’s arsenal remains intact and an unknown amount of rockets may be hidden in underground warehouses.
And while Israel has significantly downgraded Iran’s attack, the establishment of defense has costly in Israel. Marker, a leading Israeli financial newspaper, said anti -missile defense costs Israel up to 1 billion Sekel, or about $ 285 million at night.
How feasible is a long -term war
As a result, observers say, a long -term warfare between Israel and Iran may not be possible – at least with current tension.
Without refueling by the United States or greater involvement of US forces, some estimates predict that Israel can maintain its anti -missile defense for another 10 or 12 days, if Iran maintains a steady pace of attacks, a person who has been informed by the US They may be able to intercept only a smaller percentage of rockets due to the need to share defense ammunition. “They have to choose what they want to stop,” said the person, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive issue. “The system is already overloaded,” he noted.
Tal Inbar, an Israeli missile expert associated with Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance in Virginia, noted that in 2014, Israel sought a ceasefire with Hamas a few days before exhausting the air defamation. The level of intercepts are an extremely sensitive issue in Israel, but “it could be a factor in the ceasefire” and this time, Inbar said.
The Israeli Air Defense System
Israel uses a multilevel air defense system consisting of the famous Iron Dome, which inhibits lower altitude rockets, David’s Sling and Arrow systems and expensive anti -missile systems Patriot and Thaad surrendered by the United States.
Inbar stressed that a problem for Israel is that it is largely based on the relatively expensive Arrow system, which launches missiles costing $ 3 million each to deal with attacks by Iran. While the cheap and massive Iron Dome interceptors are useful against rugged rocket launches by Hamas, the Iron Dome is as ineffective as “shooting with a 9mm pistol” in heavy Iranian rockets that cross the offshore.
On Friday night, Israeli air defense failed to stop the Iranian missiles that passed by the Israeli Defense Forces headquarters, but fell to the center of Tel Aviv. On Sunday night, an Iranian rocket launched a large oil refinery near Haifa. And on Tuesday morning, Iran struck near the headquarters of Mosad, the Israeli Foreign Intelligence Service, and the Israeli Army Intelligence Directorate, according to witnesses, but did not seem to hit targets. Iran’s state -owned media reported claims by the body of the Iran’s Islamic Revolution guards that it had successfully killed Israeli intelligence and army officials, but these claims were not able to be confirmed immediately.
On Tuesday, the Israeli government has said that only 35 of the 400 rocket launched by Iran have been hit by a success rate of more than 90%. Twenty -four civilians have been killed, and more than 600 have been injured, the government said.
The Iranian authorities said 224 people had been killed by Israeli blows until Sunday, the latest available data. They did not distinguish between military and political victims. In many cases, Israeli missiles and unmanned aircraft hit apartments to kill Iranian military officials and nuclear scientists in their homes. On Monday, Israel also hit the headquarters of Iran’s state broadcasting body, after Defense Minister Israel Katz pledged that “the Iranian propaganda” will “disappear”. After the blow, the Israeli defense forces said they had targeted an Iranian military “communication center”, but did not provide any information on a military presence at the site.
Jim Lamson, a former intelligence analyst focused on Iranian ammunition and now a senior research associate at James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies of Middlebury Institute, said Iran’s missile capabilities will continue to decline because Israel is now being produced.
“Assuming that their status is not changing, or assuming that they do not agree to deliver their rockets in the context of a ceasefire, they will have a huge problem with the reconstitution of their ballistic missiles,” Lamson said. “This will depend on whether Israel is able to harm and destroy their missile production facilities,” he concluded.
Source :Skai
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