War in Ukraine: Negotiation takes a step forward with nods and promises

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Russia and Ukraine have taken a step forward in negotiations to end the war that started 34 days ago. At a point in the conflict where the two countries are trying to measure their gains, and with Kiev announcing the resumption of areas considered to be dominated by Moscow, the Putin government seeks to adjust its goals and limit its scope – thus being able to maintain a victorious speech, albeit with a more modest balance.

Two important advances were announced this Tuesday (29), the day on which face-to-face diplomatic negotiations continued in Turkey:

• Russia: announced the reduction of attacks in Kiev and Chernihiv, in the first non-humanitarian ceasefire pledge;

• Ukraine: offered military neutrality, that is, the guarantee that the country will not align itself with Western political-military blocs, such as NATO and the European Union.

Understand: The guarantee of Ukraine’s neutrality is one of the three objectives declared by the Kremlin for the invasion of the neighboring country. We remind you which they are, from the most advanced to the least advanced:

Neutrality

• What Russia requires: for Ukraine to include in its constitution a declaration that it will not participate in military blocs or alliances, such as NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) — which Kiev has signaled that it wants, although there is no guarantee from the West that its entry will take place. . The Kremlin says that rapprochement with NATO would be a risk for Russia;
• At what point are you: Ukraine expressed that it would accept neutrality, that is, it would renounce its objective of joining NATO.

Recognition of breakaway areas

• What Russia requires: that Ukraine recognizes the Crimea territory (annexed by Putin in 2014) as Russian and the provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk (which are in the eastern Donbass region) as being independent. It is for this reason that Russia has been attacking cities between Crimea and Donbass —as in Mariupol— as a way of consolidating its conquest and creating a Russian corridor between these regions;
• At what point are you: for the first time Ukraine admits to discussing the situation in Crimea – but in a period of 15 years. It also signaled discussing the status of Donbass, albeit without concrete terms.

Demilitarization and “denazification”

• What Russia requires: it is not clear. Putin used the terms in speeches and accused the Zelensky government of being supported by neo-Nazi groups. One of them, the Azov Battalion, was partly incorporated into the Ukrainian National Guard. It is not known, however, what Moscow means by demilitarization: would Ukraine give up its Armed Forces? Would it become a protectorate of Russia?
• At what point are you: Zelensky denies links to neo-Nazi groups and refuses to surrender.

What does Ukraine want from Russia? End of attacks and withdrawal of Russian forces.

And what is the possible Russian route adjustment? With the reduction of attacks outside the east and south, Putin will try to concentrate efforts to consolidate the dominance of nearby areas and form the corridor to Crimea. The Kremlin already considers the liberation of Donbass its “main objective”.

Do not get lost

1) Kiev

Russians have so far carried out attacks on the outskirts of the capital, which have hit more than 80 buildings. “Moscow just ‘pinched’ the city with peripheral fighting, but did not try to invade”, explains special reporter Igor Gielow to this newsletter.

Situation: remains under Ukrainian control.

2) Irpin

Important access to the capital has been one of Moscow’s prime targets since the beginning of the invasion. In the second, the city government declared that it regained control of the city, but the information differs from other reports.

Situation: uncertain

3) Lviv

Close to the Polish border, it has become a refugee crossing point. On the other hand, it is also a destination for weapons and military aid from the West, which is why it has been the target of occasional attacks, but not a threat of invasion.

Situation: under Ukrainian control.

4) Kharkiv

Ukraine’s second-largest city has been bombed since the beginning of the war. It houses a nuclear research facility that was attacked over the weekend. Ukraine says it has regained control of the outskirts, as well as portions of the northwestern Sumi region.

Situation: under more intense Russian attack

5) Mariupol

The city in eastern Ukraine is strategic for both countries, it was the object of a brutal siege by the Russians. Moscow considers the advance into the region, with the aim of forming a corridor to Crimea, a first phase of the war that would be “virtually concluded”.

Situation: dominated by russians

6) Mikolaiv

Rocket launched by Russia into the local administration building killed at least nine people. City once had street fighting, but is now under one-off attacks. It is on the way to an attack on Odessa.

Situation: under Ukrainian control and Russian attack

7) Odessa

Largest port in the country. Russian action would indicate an intention to isolate Kiev from the Black Sea. It suffered distant bombings.

Situation: under Ukrainian control.

What happened this Tuesday (29)

• US said preparing sanctions targeting Russian supply chain;

• Belgium and Holland expelled Russian diplomats on suspicion of espionage;

• Macron spoke to Putin about the humanitarian situation in Mariupol;

• Russia attacked Mikolaiv and approached Odessa.

picture of the day

What to see and hear to stay informed

The scenes of the war in Kharkiv, turned into a ghost town by bombing, in Mikolaiv, attacked this Tuesday, in two videos.