Let’s take seriously his last report Masculine that he examines the creation of a new political partywhich will compete with their Republican and their Democratic. It seems deeply frustrated by the historically dominant dipole of the two parties. The good news for him is that many Americans share this discontent.

It is also worth considering if Musk has – beyond plenty of money – the rest of the means to carry out such an endeavor in practice. Is it possible to do what he says? Political history, as well as the Musk’s itself, seem to answer: “Sun, keep your money.”

His statement about a new party is the latest episode of his confrontation with the president Donald Trump. One of the reasons for the rupture was Musk’s offensive criticism of the Trump government bill, known as “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” Musk described it as “completely absurd and destructive”.

The reason? The bill would raise national debt by at least $ 3 trillion. Musk called on Congress not to vote. However, the Republicans ignored him and promoted the bill to Trump, who signed it on a ceremony on July 4. Result: Trump 1 – Musk 0.

The public wishes a third party but not so simple

Public opinion is drawn to Musk in the need for a third, powerful political party. According to Gallupa poll conducted every year since 2003, only in the first year (2003) majority of citizens believed that the two existing parties sufficiently represent the American people.

In October 2023, the 58% He stated that Republicans and Democrats are “doing such a bad job” that the creation of a new big party is needed. Although slightly reduced compared to previous years, this percentage is consistent with the total trend of the last two decades.

The majority of independent voters declare over time in favor of a third party – 69% in 2023. Republicans and Democrats, on the contrary, tend to be more positive to the dipole, especially when their party is in power. However, even they often express the need for an alternative.

Strengthening citizens’ independence is reflected elsewhere: in 2023, 43% of Americans were identified as independent – compared to 28% for each of the two main political formations.

However, when they are pressured to choose a side or when they are in the electoral screen, most independent are eventually aligned with one of the two big parties. When there are no realistic alternatives, no one wants to “throw his vote”.

The failure of previous attempts

Many candidates have tried to express the “middle, reasonable center” of the electorate. No one did it. THE Howard Sultsformerly Starbucks CEO, launched an election campaign in 2020 but retired in a few months. THE Michael Blooma former mayor of New York, examined an independent candidacy and eventually concluded that there was no Nikiforos road. He then participated in the Democrats’ race – without success, despite the cost of almost $ 1 billion.

Donald Trump, with money and recognition, could have followed the independent street, but chose to understand the Republican Party from the inside.

There are also examples that have garnered a significant proportion of votes, but without electoral success:

  • THE Ross Pero the 1992 received 19% of the popular vote, without any elector
  • THE George Wala the 1968 won five southern states and about 14% of the vote
  • THE Thodor Rooseveltformer president, the 1912 As a candidate for the Bull Moose Party, he received 27% of the vote and six states, but by breaking down the Republican vote, he paved the way for the victory of Democratic Woodow Wilson.

Parties like the Green or Libertarians They exist and download candidates, but remain extremely marginal.

Can Musk succeed where everyone has failed?

His obvious advantage is money. Musk is the richest man in the world, with an estimated fortune of over $ 400 billion. Last year, he spent more than 250 million to support Trump.

However, the question is not if it has money – but how much it is willing to invest to create a sustainable and long -term party. OR Kamala Harrisin its failed election campaign for just 107 days, spent more than 1 billion. How many billions will be required to set up a whole party from scratch?

And this is a constant investment: building party building is a daily and perennial process. Ross Pero attempted to set up a party after 1992, returned in 1996, but the venture was dissolved due to internal disagreements and a lack of a single agenda.

Musk is called upon to answer key questions, such as what his party will advocate.

If his only issue is debt and deficits, this may not be enough. A recent poll of Washington Post/Ipsos They showed that 63% of citizens find it unacceptable to add another 3 trillion. In the already 36 trillion. national debt.

However, the Pew Research Center He found that citizens ranked deficits somewhere in the middle of their priorities – behind the economy, immigration, health costs, but also (note K. MSK) the limitation of money influence in politics.

So would a debt restriction agenda be enough, even if it included interventions on issues such as Medicare or Social Security?

The alternative tactic: targeted interventions in 2026

Musk seems to be considering affecting the 2026 elections by targeting vulnerable MPs and Senators, with the aim of creating a small group of independent legislators who will play a regulator. To do this, it could throw huge sums into a few selected regions via Super Pacs (due to restrictions on individual donations).

However, in addition to money, quality candidates are needed. Will Musk be able to identify, recruit and support people capable of competing with established parties?

And there is the issue of access to ballots. Each state has different regulations, which requires army from lawyers and signatures. It is possible – but difficult to organize in time for the intermediate elections. If it finally aims at a few seats, it may be simpler to propose independent candidates.

The face of Musk – problem or advantage?

Musk himself may not be the ideal symbol for a new party. It has become unpopular after entering the political sphere.

In a recent survey of Institute of Governmental Studies of Berkeley Universitycitizens were asked how much they trust various institutions and bodies “to act in the interest of the people of California”. Of the nine bodies, technology companies and their leaders have come last – with 79% to declare “little” or “no” trust.

When former Foreign Minister Colin Powell was asked in 1996 if it is easier to go down as an independent or through a third party, he replied:

“It depends on the nature of the party. Does it have a structure? Financing; Does it offer something meaningful? “

These are the questions that Musk must answer – and those around him – before he goes. It will soon be shown to be a serious venture or just another pointless disruption.