The delivery of huge fortifications to an expansive neighbor who is determined to destroy your state tends to be a bad idea, comments Politico in the wake of the White House meeting.
In 1938, the concession of Suditia and the dense network of fortresses, forests and trenches led to the rapid collapse of Czechoslovakia’s ability to defend itself against Nazi Germany. In Europe there are fears that Kiev’s ability to resist Russia will be eliminated equally if Donald Trump – influenced by Russian President Vladimir Putin – presses Ukraine to deliver basic defensive lines to the eastern region of Donbas.
This danger was the most important in Volodimir Zelenski’s mind as he met with Trump in Washington on Monday after the US president’s meeting with Putin last week. While Trump can see a piece of Donbas as a “bone” to fly to Putin to secure an agreement, Zelenski knows that such a concession would undermine any peace agreement and enable the Russians to further invade Ukraine’s heart.
“It is vital for Europe not to turn this story into another moment of Munich or Yalta,” Thomas Kopetski, commissioner of the Czech government for the rebuilding of Ukraine, told Politico, referring to the betrayal of the Czechs from the West at the Munich Summit in 1938 and the sale of Central and Eastern Europe to Joseph Stalin in Joseph Stalin.
Trump allegedly said that he believed that Putin would agree on a peace deal that would end the war if Ukraine delivered the entire Donetsk and Luhank provinces to the east. Russia occupies almost all of Luhansk and Donetsk’s three quarters.
Defying the pressures, Zelenski said he would not do so.
“We will not leave Donbas. We can’t do that. Donbas for Russians is a springboard for a future new attack, ” Zelenski clarified with reporters in Kyiv last week.
Military analysts also warn that any concessions in Donbas could have devastating consequences on the battlefield.
According to the Institute of Study of the War (ISW), the Kremlin requires Ukraine to deliver what Ukrainians call their “fortified zone” – a defensive line based on heavy fortified cities that crosses hills, forests and has been built along the river.
“Ukraine has devoted over the last 11 years spending time, money and trying to strengthen the fortified zone and creating significant defense industrial and defense infrastructure in and around these cities.”said the Institute.
If Moscow gets whatever it wants, it will move its first line about 80 kilometers west, while Ukraine will be forced to build new defenses at level and open ground in neighboring Kharkov and DniePropetrovsk – much more difficult to keep than the fortified cities now.
“If today we leave Donbas, from our fortifications, from our territory, from the heights we control, we will clearly open a bridge to prepare an attack by the Russians,” Zelenski warned.
ISW agrees. A truce on these terms would give to Moscow ‘A much more advantageous starting point for a future attack’ and shows the “Putin’s continued indifference to good faith negotiations.”
The United Kingdom Ministry of Defense estimated that it would take over four years of battle and cost Russia 1.9 million dead and injured soldiers to fully occupy the four areas that annexed to Ukraine illegally.
This is not the first time that external forces have been seeking to forcefully pass a potentially unfavorable agreement to prevent a war.
In September 1938, Adolf Hitler argued that the surrender of the Sudetians, with a majority of ethnic Germans, would satisfy his ambitions and ending the threat of war in Europe. France and Britain agreed and pressed Prague to accept it. Hitler – whose reason was just as reliable as Putin – said he had no further territorial ambitions.
Czechoslovakia had spent several years constructing thousands of bills, forts and fortresses in the woody and mountainous area – staffed by a modern and well -equipped army of 1.2 million. Germany took it all without throwing a bullet.
In March 1939, German troops invaded the rest of the country, with the Czech army unable to resist.
Kiev remembers Munich
The Ukrainians know very well what happened to the Czechs 87 years ago.
“Without security guarantees, the freezing of war means a second Munich of 1938”Watched Olexxis Haran, a professor of comparative policy at the National University’s Kievo Academy, in a commentary on Germany’s Federal Center for Political Education.
This is a reference to the alleged security guarantees for Kiev, which Trump’s negotiator for the war in Ukraine, real estate agent Steve Whitkov, has said that they are similar to Article 5 of NATO – although Trump has repeatedly excluded his integration.
Hara argued that “if we sign a ceasefire agreement or even hold elections without security guarantees, Putin could continue his aggression next day.” Such an agreement, he said, would “recognize de facto control of Ukrainian territories by Russia for an indefinite period” and would repeat the mistakes of 1938, when concessions to an attacker caused only further escalation.
Yaroslav Chritsak, a Ukrainian historian and professor at the Ukrainian Catholic university, warned that the danger exceeds another Munich type betrayal. “It’s the moment of Yalta”he said.
There is also a human element in the change of border.
Europe has a long experience with it. During World War II, the Germans and the Soviets imposed mass ethnic cleansing programs on their captive populations. In 1945, millions of ethnic Germans were expelled from Czechoslovakia and Poland.
If Ukraine is forced to give the whole Donbas to Russia, Hritsak argued, this will give Moscow the right to “decide the fate of people living in the countries of the former Soviet bloc”. This will be done against the will of the local population, he added, “Just using the status of a large strong state that has the right to rule the smaller and weaker states.”
Retreating to Moscow
Diplomats and governments on the east side of NATO warn that Russia is trying to use peace talks to acquire a strategic advantage that has not managed to win on the battlefield despite the three -and -a -half years of bloody battles that cost it more than a million.
“Russia is probably aware that it currently does not have sufficient military potential to achieve its maximalist goals only on the battlefield,” the Latvian intelligence service wrote in its latest report. Instead, Moscow “is trying to force Ukraine to concessions through various measures of influence”.
However, despite the concerns about the delivery of Ukraine by Trump to Putin, there are remarkable differences between 2025 and 1938.
When the agreement was reached, Czechoslovakia was not invited to the negotiating table. This time, Zelenski was in the White House to speak with Trump and made it clear that he wants a truce based on the current front line between Ukrainian and Russian forces.
Some European officials remain moderately optimistic that the US will not betray Europe.
‘I don’t see that happen,’ said Kopetski, Czech Special Envoy for Ukraine, noting that Trump was talking to Zelenski and European allies.
“The current situation does not look like Munich and Yalta.”
Source :Skai
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