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Zair Bolsonaru confronts the consequences.

The final trial of the former Brazilian president, which began on Tuesday, is expected to be completed on September 12, but the verdict seems already prescribed: Bolsonaru will probably be found guilty of a coup conspiracy after his 20th defeat by his 20th election.

He will undoubtedly insist that his condemnation is a product of conspiracy to the country’s powerful elites. Indeed, the Brazilian Supreme Court has repeatedly been accused of overcoming, with controversial rulings. Even though this criticism is well -founded, it does not answer an unpleasant practical question for Bolsonaru, who denies any offense: how a leader who received more than 58 million votes and lost the elections with a marginal difference, ended up looking at the prison?

The answer lies in his own paranoid choices: if Bolsonaru had ruled with little restraint instead of constantly undermining Brazil’s institutions, even his government’s vaccine strategy itself, he might have prevailed in Lula. If he had simply accepted his defeat in 2022, instead of being trapped in denial and eccentric coup scenarios, he would be in a position of power for a triumphant return to the next year’s elections, especially after the lukewarm performance of Lula’s third term.

On the contrary, the 70 -year -old conservative leader is excluded from the polls by 2030 due to the spread of false allegations of the electoral system and is now in danger of spending decades in prison.

Thus, his dire position is less due to his powerful enemies and more to his own wrong strategic choices. He will never admit it, but the former army captain has only himself to blame for the future waiting for him.

Of course, some will argue that a Bolsonaru who would not attack democracy would just not be … Bolsonaru. For years he has despised the fundamental democratic values, this anti -systemic challenge is exactly that he made him attractive to voters suspicious of power, who were fascinated by his “authenticity”. As Christopher Garman, director of America in the Eurasia Group, put it: “The secret ingredient that brought him to power is what he sends to prison. It has this anti -systemic DNA and that drove where it drove. “

However, the scale of his mistakes remains striking for someone who still maintains unexpectedly high popularity: a recent Atlasintel poll for Bloomberg News shows that in a hypothetical clash in 2026, Bolsonaru would draw a draw with Lula if he could be in Lula. But it can’t.

Think of his latest slip: the mediation of Donald Trump’s White House, through his son Eduardo, to “punish” Brazil and the Judge of the Supreme Court Alexandre de Moraes, chaired by his case. Anyone in his circle thought it was a good idea, did nothing but worsen his position. This move gave Lula’s sinking government vessel, alienated the undecided voters as it put the personal vendets over the national interest and even endangered the cohesion of the right in view of 2026. Even if we accept that it has worked under the pressure of despair, the question remains: why is it still digging, and has already reached the bottom of the pit?

Bolsonaru and Trump have a lot in common: they both survived the assassination attempts, they both claim to be victims of “witch hunting”, and both went down as “outsiders” to overturn the system and tried to undermine it when they were in power, and both of them were in power, of their supporters.

However, there are some key differences: Trump remains a charismatic figure that acts as a magnet for media, capable of attracting global attention through his giant megalomania, while Bolsonaru does not. And while Trump’s moves often reveal a cynical political calculation, Bolsonar’s contempt for anything that goes beyond his doctrine is honest, almost irreversible.

The institutional framework is also decisive: Brazilian presidents do not have the same power as their US counterparts, nor does the country protect freedom of expression in the absolute way that the first amendment in the US guarantees. Bolsonaru may dream of becoming Brazil’s “emperor”, but, as his failed attempt to remain in power have shown, institutions have the power to contain him. He may have attempted to forcefully take what he was unable to win by political means, but once again he mistakenly calculated how far the courts would come to stop him.

However, Bolsonaru still holds a strong paper in his hands: the role of the “regulator” in the elections. With just 13 months left until the ballot box, he has to decide whether to support Sao Paulo’s ruler, Tarkizio de Freitas, the strongest candidate on the right and a favorite of investors or to promote a member of his family, either his wife Michel or a one. The first choice gives its conservative movement a credible contender, but it can reduce its personal influence on the next government. His second ensures dedication, but probably weakens his electoral paper against Lula, in a race expected again.

“It’s 50-50 and Bolsonaru will decide. It still has significant political capital, “said Brasilia by Garman of the Eurasia Group, noting that Lula’s current acceptance rate, over 40%, gives him a small lead for 2026.

And if the story has something to teach us, is that we should not expect Bolsonaru to make a realistic decision. The rational strategy has never been his strong point.