Finland’s President Alexander Stubb said that security guarantees for Ukraine will oblige European countries to sign the “alliance of willing” to fight Russia if Moscow is militarily moving against it in the future.

“Security guarantees are essentially a deterrent. This deterrent must be convincing and, in order to be convincing, it must be strong, “Stubb told the Guardian in an interview with Helsinki before traveling to New York for the UN General Assembly.

He stressed that the guarantees would only come into force after a future agreement between Ukraine and Russia, but he insisted that Russia would not be entitled to a veto in their form.

“Russia has absolutely no jurisdiction in the sovereign decisions of an independent nation-state … So for me it is not a question of whether Russia will agree or not. Of course he will not agree, but this is not the point, “he said.

Following a meeting in Paris last month, French President Emmanuel Macron told reporters that 26 countries had pledged to participate as security forces in Ukraine, with some of them binding to be present “terrestrial, by sea or by sea.”

Military involvement

However, the big question that many have in Kiev is whether the agreements will be accompanied by specific commitments. When asked if the guarantees mean that European countries say they will be ready to get involved with Russia in the event of future aggression against Ukraine, Stube replied: “This is the idea of ​​security guarantees by definition.”

However, it is not at all clear that there is a political will for this kind of commitment to most European capitals, where promises to post -war Ukraine have usually been further formulated as “assurances” than as constant commitments. So far, the policy of most Western countries has been to provide support to Ukraine, but to minimize the risk of direct conflict with Russia. However, Stubb said that any guarantees would be useless if they were not really supported.

“Security guarantees are essentially a deterrent and this deterrent must be convincing, and in order to be convincing it must be strong. And that also means strategic communication, so as not to give vague security guarantees, but to give real security guarantees and Russia knows this, “Stubb said.

Basic factor in peacekeeping negotiations

Stubb has emerged as a key factor in peace negotiations in recent months, creating close relations with US President Donald Trump, including through golf. This personal relationship results in Finland, with a population of just 5.6 million, playing an important role in communicating between Trub and European leaders. Stubb said he and Trub are still regularly communicating, “by telephone and other media”, and that he is expecting to meet this week.

Stubb has said in many cases this year that the US president is starting to lose his patience with Russian President Vladimir Putin, but so far Trump’s harsh statements against the Russian president have not been translated into acts, and a series of deadlines that have been made by the US president. On the contrary, Trump laid the red carpet for Putin in Alaska last month.

The Finnish president estimates that progress has been made, but “it is not spectacular, it is a gradual process.” As for the question of whether Europe has come for Europe to accept that the US is not a credible ally in Ukraine negotiations, Stubb said that his country has no choice but to try to maintain friendly relations with the Trump government as much as possible.

“I think it is the duty of the president of Finland to have good relations with the President of the United States, whoever he is,” he said. “Foreign policy is always based on three pillars. These are values, interests and power. Small states only have values ​​and interests … but we can influence instead of power. The involvement is better than isolation, whatever happens, “he added.

Last week, Stubb was in Kiev, where he met with Ukraine President Volodimir Zelenski, and said he left the journey “sure” that Ukraine could continue to fight, if needed, rejecting them.

Much of attention at the UN this week will focus on Palestine, but hopes to have several Ukraine -related meetings, both with Zelensky and other leaders. Concerning security guarantees, he said that “US support” would be needed to give them real power and admitted that there is no complete picture of what the Trump government is willing to commit.

However, the discussion of guarantees can be purely hypothetical if no progress in the negotiations on the end of war is first made. Zelenski has stated many times that he is willing to meet Putin, as Trump asked, but Putin has said he will meet Zelensky only in Moscow or if many Russian demands are first met.

Stubb acknowledged that at the moment there seems to be not very likely that Putin will sit on the negotiating table. “This war is too great to lose him. He has probably made the biggest mistake in recent history, certainly from the end of the Cold War, and has failed in all his strategic goals. The question is when it will sit on the negotiating table, I hope as soon as possible, but at the moment I am quite pessimistic, “he concluded.