The probability of the world being able to limit global warming to 1.5º C has decreased in recent years, points out the new report by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), an entity linked to the UN responsible for analyzing the issue.
“That’s because emissions [de gases causadores do aquecimento global] have increased since 2017, and many recent paths have projected higher emissions through 2030.”
The analysis compares the current situation with the assessment cycle carried out in 2013. The increase of 1.5°C is considered a limit to prevent the disappearance of island countries — if the temperature rises above that, these places are at risk of being submerged. .
Launched on Monday (4), the new report updates the account on the recent trajectory of emissions of gases that cause global warming and also makes projections about the reductions foreseen in the commitments of the Paris Agreement and the opportunities to accelerate the transition to a low carbon economy in all sectors.
Global greenhouse gas emissions rose more between 2010 and 2019 than in any of the previous decades. On the other hand, the pace of growth was lower: 1.3% per year. In the previous decade, from 2000 to 2009, emissions rose at a rate of 2.1% per year.
Responsibility for emissions also migrated during this period, basically from the United States to China. The climate panel points out that North America accounted for 19% of global emissions in 2000, but with Chinese growth, the share has decreased to 14% in 2010 and 12% in 2019.
Meanwhile, East Asia, led by China, accounted for 27% of global emissions in 2019. In 2000, the region contributed to 16% of global emissions and, in 1990, 13%.
The change of the main emitters is one of the main nodes of the UN climate negotiations. Developed countries, responsible for most of the historic emissions, argue that developing countries like China — as well as Brazil and India — need to increase their climate commitments.
THE sheet found that the IPCC’s revelations about the recent increase in emissions, whose greatest contribution comes from developing countries such as China, generated disputes over the text that delayed the final plenary of approval of the report, reviewed and commented by representatives of governments of the 195 countries. .
Scheduled to be concluded last Friday (1), the plenary session lasted until Sunday (3), with a postponement of the release of the material. The discussion between China and the United States was, according to plenary participants, one of the main difficulties in approving the text.
Beijing China is criticized for planning to peak emissions only at the end of the decade, which is accepted by the Paris Agreement for developing countries. For Americans, the Chinese should have higher commitments, as they lead current emissions globally.
