Summit meetings, with the classic exceptions, are held to present course corrections in the relationship between great powers. Something defining new eras is rarely expected.
Even for its virtual format, a pandemic courtesy that now serves as an excuse to keep the asepsis of a relationship steeped in tension, the meeting between Xi Jinping and Joe Biden delivered what was promised: nothing in particular.
On the other hand, it marked a discreet shift in the central geopolitical dispute of this century, largely due to the peculiarities of Xi’s condition.
The leader of the communist dictatorship made opening moves towards his rival in the White House. On Tuesday of last week (11), his ambassador at an event in Washington read an open letter in which he explained his willingness to change the course of collision between the two countries.
The following day (12), China and the US surprised those attending the innocuous UN climate meeting in Scotland with a joint declaration of cooperation — the planet’s air and water, after all, are common goods, and the two largest economies in the world they are the biggest polluters too.
The virtual meeting on Monday (15), or this Tuesday, Beijing time, crowned this triad of goodwill. Not before Xi made his position clear, signaling like a chess player to “old friend” Biden the limits of his smile.
Beijing spent October militarily threatening the US-protected island of Taiwan with the biggest incursions against Taipei’s air defenses in the history of a dispute that dates back to the Communist victory on the mainland in 1949.
Several analysts, such as the pope of American geopolitics George Friedman, see this as a bluff: China would have much more to lose than to gain in a difficult operation to conquer Taiwan.
If so, Biden took the bait. The island’s president confirmed that US troops have been secretly training on her territory for years, in an attempt to dissuade Xi from bolder advances. The effect, however, was to legitimize the Chinese discourse of foreign interference.
That’s because, for better or worse, the US has diplomatically recognized China since 1979, and that includes accepting the idea that the island is part of the empire today under Xi. He was clear in commenting on American support for pro-independence and the risk of such a declaration being issued.
“These courses are extremely dangerous. It’s like playing with fire, and whoever plays with fire ends up getting burned,” he said. Biden, according to available reports, only reaffirmed his concern about the Taiwan Strait relationship.
Another formative element of the Xi in open diplomatic mode was his enthronement as the third mandarin of modern China’s pantheon, with the Communist Party’s resolution elevating him to the status of Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping last week.
With his likely reappointment of another five years in power in 2022, and perhaps for life, the leader becomes an inescapable element in the world political panorama — whether you like him or not, like the Russian Vladimir Putin , 22 years of power and counting.
Xi wants to be seen as an equal, as he says in every speech.
On the other hand, as the bluff of his military capabilities, there are weaknesses to move Xi. The main one is the crisis in the central pillar of his country’s finances, the real estate market, still absorbing the shocks of the mega-crisis with the company Evergrande.
Investors around the world fear the seismic waves of a meltdown could topple economies around the world, and that creates a mistrust Xi needs to fight.
On Biden’s side, the weaknesses of his management overshadowed him. The president foresees the loss of control of Congress next year, which could kill his chance of reelection, and he slips into any number of issues.
In any case, he endorsed the continuation of the Cold War 2.0 initiated by his chaotic predecessor, Donald Trump, and put all his annoyances on the table, moreover made explicit in recent months with movements such as the military pact with Australia and with the numerous provocations of side by side.
Hong Kong, Taiwan, Xinjiang, the movements of the Chinese nuclear arsenal, these have all been debated or mentioned at some point. But the bland tone, unlike the famous meeting of the two diplomats in Alaska in May, suggests that conversation might be possible.
At the very least, to keep the war between the two countries cool, as any clash out of control in Taiwan or the South China Sea would have unpredictable consequences.
This is a central point of the struggle of superpowers in the 21st century. In the previous version, the US Cold War with the Soviet Union was hot by proxy and affected the lives of people around the world, as Brazilians we can attest to with the 1964 dictatorship.
Even with Xi’s greater assertiveness in the external field, there is nothing like the Soviet ideological projection into power blocs in the world. China’s business is, well, business. And the interconnection with the American economy, something that never happened between Moscow and Washington, is also a reasonable deterrent.
Of course, just go back to the 1910 prophets who denied the chance of war because Europe revolved around the City of London and the blood ties of monarchs to know which frameworks are fallible, and there are many serious people who foresee the inevitability of the cop. China-US insistence.
It may be, but for now it looks like we’ll see the evolution of chess moves proposed by Xi to Biden.
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