Israel and Hamas agreed to an initial first phase of the Gaza plan proposed last week by US President Donald Trump. Many remain uncertain, but this could be the biggest step towards a permanent solution in the two -year war, the Guardian notes.

The agreement provides for a truce, with Israeli forces retiring to new positions. Hosts held by Hamas – of which about 20 are believed to be alive – will be released within 72 hours, and will follow the remains of the rest. Between 1,700 and 2,000 Palestinian prisoners will be released from Israeli prisons. In addition, there will be an increase in the desperately needed humanitarian aid.

How did we lead to agreement

Israeli wars have been terminated repeatedly when US leaders have intervened dynamically. Already isolated internationally and under increasing pressure inside his country, Benjamin Netanyahu seems to have estimated that he cannot risk the support of his country’s most loyal and powerful ally, refusing to stop Israel’s relentless attack.

He also considered that he could overcome the resistance of far -right members of his government alliance in any agreement – especially if its terms favor Israel, as it seems to be the case at the moment.

At the same time, Hamas failed to cause significant losses in Israeli forces in Gaza or to effectively slow down their advance. The militant Islamist organization is under pressure from Qatar, Egypt and Turkey to make concessions, and its future would seem ominous without some degree of support or at least understanding of these regional forces.

Hamas leaders, who live mostly outside Gaza, seem to have been convinced, at least in part, by the argument that the hostages they hold have become weight, simply offering Israel a reason to continue the conflict. After all, they can claim that survival is a victory.

But this is only the first step and probably the easiest.

The next, most difficult, steps

It is not yet clear how much ground for Israeli forces will grant – Israeli media report that they will maintain more than half of Gaza for the time being – and what will be the timetable even for a partial withdrawal of the troops.

It is also not clear whether Hamas is disarmed and to what extent, which will probably be particularly problematic. And it seems unlikely that Hamas and her Gaza fighters will accept amnesty or go to exile, as the Trump plan defines.

There are other issues that need to be resolved – the exact form of governance in Gaza after the definitive end of the war, its possible rebuilding, who could provide troops for an international “stabilization” force and much more. All this has not yet been fully negotiated or explicitly agreed.

There are many possible roads that could lead to a repetition of the conflict, but it seems unlikely that there will be a rapid return to hostilities. It is more likely, if the war resumes, to keep a fragile truce for weeks or months, and then collapsing when one or the other decides that it can again gain the advantage by continuing hostilities.

But, in a more optimistic light, what is happening now seems very different from the previous November 2023 and January 2025 truce, while both Hamas and Netanyahu seem to believe that they can gain more than one agreement than the continuation of the conflict.

The regional forces should remain active, international leaders should push the two parties to do things they do not want, Hamas must remain convinced that further violence will not serve its purpose – or the wider purpose of all Palestinians – and the pre -election campaign.

Perhaps, above all, Trump must continue to be interested in securing some form of long -term peace in Gaza and even a new, broader diplomatic restart in the Middle East. All this is big “if”, but, almost two years after Hamas’ deadly raid in October 2023 that triggered the war and the relentless Israeli attack that turned Gaza into a “cemetery”, this conflict can now be approaching its end.