In a conflict where the war of narratives is as fierce as the one unfolding on Ukraine’s soil, the new sanctions prepared by the West to punish Vladimir Putin for his war against his neighbor will be sold as yet another asphyxiating blow to the Kremlin.
In the view of many Western analysts and politicians, the discomfort that sanctions generate in the Russian population is a passport for the local elite, or the middle class in the streets, to oust the long-lived Putin from the power he has held since he took over as premier in August. from 1999.
So far, wait. Russia has been systematically sanctioned since 2012. According to the American data platform Castellum.AI, there were 2,754 actions up to the war; after that, 5,314 more specific about the conflict. For now, it resists the tsunami with relative success.
This, coupled with Putin’s control of public discourse imposed on state media about the war, appears to be behind the support the leader has garnered. After more than a month of state research, the respected independent Levada center has finally begun to release data on popular perceptions of the war.
Putin’s approval jumped from 71% in February to 83% in a March 24-30 survey of 1,600 interviews in 50 Russian regions, plus or minus two points. This is the highest rate of Putin’s career, tying with the 83% he raised shortly after annexing Crimea from Ukraine in March 2014. There is, however, according to reports from Moscow observers who request anonymity, a climate of euphoria. as on that occasion.
If the support has to do with the 15 years in prison to which the Kremlin considers spreaders of lies about the conflict are subject, it is likely, but not verifiable. The economic factor is clear.
For starters, contrary to expectations, the country has not defaulted on its bonds, even with about 60% of its reserves of US$ 640 billion frozen abroad, in the toughest of sanctions so far. The new sanctions suggested in the US could change that by vetoing payments in US banks.
Government and companies continue to pay their creditors. It is true that Putin wants to force them to receive rubles in order to artificially increase the currency’s value, and he has decided to do the same with importers of his greatest treasure, gas and oil. The dispute is still ongoing, but the predicted collapse has now been reversed.
On February 23, US$1 was worth the same 81 rubles paid at Moscow exchanges on Monday, even after a 30% drop in the value of the currency that recalled the worst moments of the 1998 disaster and the recession of 2015-16.
This is also due to the fact that Putin practically tied the president of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, to the chair, and she used the pen in an orthodox way: he raised the basic interest rate from 9.5% per year to 20%, a maneuver that Brazilians have grown tired of. to see in the initial years of the real to hold back inflation and attract capital.
For Moscow residents with whom the sheet talked about, some Western consumer goods are missing, but this is a situation that doesn’t seem to frighten so much, even because it happened in 2014. The scare of the departure of foreign companies and brands, in addition to the end of services such as Apple Pay and international credit cards seem to have already been absorbed.
The same cannot be said for the airline industry, which sees companies reducing fleets in order to cannibalize parts of Western planes, now without assistance. For a country whose middle class has grown used to traveling abroad, isolation also comes as a shock.
According to the consumer mood monitor at Sberbank, the largest in the country, Russian confidence in shopping remains unchanged, and prices, on average, are only 5% higher than the pre-war period.
In an article in the Kommersant newspaper, the program director of Clube Valdai, a Kremlin-aligned debate center, said that the sanctions are uniting Russians around the government, as they are perceived as discriminatory. “They fantastically think that the sanctions will be eternal,” said Ivan Timofeev.
On the other side of the ideological trench agrees with him the independent journalist Farida Rustamova, who wrote a story on her blog recounting conversations with members of the elite describing that there is boredom about the war, but that they are firmer than ever with Putin.
The Stock Exchange was put under control, with operating restrictions, and the initial drop of 30% in the values ​​of the main stocks was stabilized. The run on the banks has cooled. The British magazine The Economist said that 3 trillion rubles withdrawn at the beginning of the crisis had already returned to current accounts. The economy, the liberal bible asserted with clear distaste, “is better than you think.”
There are more basic explanations. First, Europe did not adhere to a total veto on the purchase of Russian hydrocarbons, especially because of the dependence that the German president said was a historic mistake.
And there is the great ally China and other countries that ignore the sanctions, such as Brazil. In the energy sector, according to the UN agency subordinated to the International Trade Center, Beijing buys 21% of what Moscow sells, leading the top 10 in the ranking, which has other Western allies that have not punished Putin, such as South Korea (6% of gas, oil and derivatives imports) and NATO member Turkey (3%). The rest of the world, which saves the Kremlin, accounts for 31% of revenue.
Sales of iron and steel, vetoed by the European Union, follow the same line: the two biggest buyers did not adhere to sanctions: Turkey (14%) and Mexico (9%). Only 19% went to countries that now do not accept the Russian product. When it comes to technology products, China accounts for 52% of Moscow’s foreign market and only 11% went to destinations that are now closed.
The situation, of course, follows the stagnant pace of Putin’s military campaign, which wanted to overthrow the government in Kiev in a week but failed. The clear shift towards a more protracted conflict will put the Russian’s popularity to the test.
The Levada institute questioned the Russians about their view of the conflict, and the result emulates that of the state institutes, with broad support: 53% say they are very much in favor of the shares, and 28% in favor. Only 8% say they are somewhat against it, and 6% are very critical. These are numbers to be taken with caution, precisely because of the climate of censorship in the country. Analysts say that hardly anyone would make an open statement against conflict to an unknown person. The war itself is followed with interest by 64% of the ears.
The number that worries the Kremlin, however, is different: 67% are worried about the effects of sanctions on their lives, 21 points more than in December. For a third, the measures are already felt.
While more than 70% say they believe the West is to blame for the conflict, the lasting effects of a long war can have a political impact. The outcome of this dispute is yet to be known, but in addition to not having prevented a missile from falling in Ukraine, sanctions so far have not been as apocalyptic as US President Joe Biden and company announced.
