Stefanos Nikolaidis
After 2 years of warthe Israel and the Hamas agreed to first phase of a ceasefire by mediation of United States. The plan of 20 -point presented by the President Donald Trump predicts the liberation of all hostages, withdrawal of Israeli forces from defined areas gauze and Start of a new political process under international supervision.
It is about most important development to Middle East by the outburst her conflict – an evolution that, however, does not guarantee peace yet. OR Hamas asks guarantees for complete retirement of Israel and rejects any conversation about disarmamentwhile in Israel or political instability and the pressure to the prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu make the implementation of the agreement a compound and politically dangerous venture.
OR trucethen, is more of a pause in spite of one end. As two experienced analysts note, the Alexandros Despotopoulos and the Angel Syrigosthe next day will determine if the Middle East enters into stability period or if prepared for a New, more complicated conflict.
The next day for Israel
THE Benjamin Netanyahu is in front of one of the most critical phases of his political course. “Until October 2026 he has to go to elections, having two major problems. “explains Alexander Despotopoulos. “On the one hand, it depends on the right-wing parties to rule; on the other, all polls show that in a possible election his party will probably lose seats. “
Even if the agreement with the Hamas give him temporary boostthe his political basis remains fragile. “If he proceeds to the release of iconic Palestinian prisoners, such as Barguti, he is in danger of causing a serious internal crisis in Israel. His far -right allies are categorically opposed“, He notes.
Mr. Despotopoulos points out that target of war It was not only the release of hostage but ‘The complete elimination of Hamas and regional terrorist groups” If the Hamas does not accept the disarmament her, the Continue military operations is a possible scenario.
At the same time, Netanyahu faces and jurisdiction who had been ‘frozen’ because of the war, while the his political survival depends on the balance between the military determination and social fatigue. “The substance“He says,”is that Israel manages a victory. The question is whether it will be able to turn it into sustainable peace“
“I think everyone is walking in a minefield. For Netanyahu it is emblematic of the last hostage, even if we are talking about the corpses of the dead. There is a theory that the Israeli prime minister will call elections earlier in order to reap any positive climate in his favor, so that he may have a better luck in parliament the next day. “
In geopoliticalthe jam of Trump with a role ‘International Supervisor’ raises questions. “Is an oxymoron »observes. “Obviously the US wants to have a say in the reconstruction and energy plans of the area. Gaza has geostrategic importance for marine zones and potential deposits. US will remain present in a strong manner“
The next day for Gaza
The ‘next day»In Gauze looks more like pause before storm. “If we are talking about a truce, it is something realistic; if we are talking about permanent peace, it is extremely difficult to proceed“, Says Angel SyrigosProfessor of International Law and MP of ND.
OR Hamas had set 3 terms – departure, a definitive end of war and release of Palestinian prisoners – Of whom only one has been satisfied. “So the perspective of this story remains open“, He points out.
The question of post -war governance is even more complex. The Trump plan predicts technocratic government under Palestinian Authoritybut ”No one knows how to apply in practice” The landscape is’completely cloudy“, As he describes it.
Mr Syrigos explains that acceptance of Trump suggestions by the Hamas is due to huge losses of in war and to pressure from Qatar and Turkey‘her two main supporters” Of particular importance, as he says, has role her Turkey‘attempting to maintain a strong influence on post -war equation“
To roll of Arabianthe professor thinks they can act as guarantors only if there is strong American presence. Otherwise, ‘do not have the special weight to impose stability“
For the proposed International Peace Council headed by Donald Trump and Tony Blairhe says he is skeptical. “This is a political idea that can hardly work in practice. Corresponding shapes in Bosnia did not work. International travelers often abolished power by the residents themselves“
OR realityhowever, in Gauze remains dramatic. “Residents still live with warnings of dangerous zones. The truce does not mean a return to regularity; just a temporary breath. For a long time they will live in awnings, in miserable conditions. Many, if they find a way, will leave Gaza“
A peace under surveillance
OR Trump truce is the light after a exterminating war. But the very nature of agreement show How fragile it is: a truce that depends on the disarmament of a organization where does not intend to disarmand from one political leadership to Israel where does not have fixed foundations.
This is how the Middle East enters a new phase sub international surveillancebut without clear orientation. The hostages may return to their homesbut deeper causes of conflict remain unsolved.
As both analysts point out, The truce is just the end of a battle – not the end of the war.
Source :Skai
With a wealth of experience honed over 4+ years in journalism, I bring a seasoned voice to the world of news. Currently, I work as a freelance writer and editor, always seeking new opportunities to tell compelling stories in the field of world news.
