“We do not want to condemn the ceasefire agreement from the beginning with excessive expectations, let’s hope for the best, but most truce is more difficult to maintain the first two or three weeks‘, Professor Michael Clark explains.
In its analysis, on the Sky News television network, for the way in which the Israeli troops by the Gauze strip stressed that he is unlikely to retire Further in the coming days, as there is still huge ambiguity around the ceasefire agreement.
Speaking on the channel, as the ceasefire to end the Gaza war came into force on Friday, the professor said that clashes are likely to occur between the two sides, as Israel has made it clear that any seemingly threatening action will be answered.
The data
Israel and Hamas agreed on Thursday in the first phase of a peace deal with the mediation of US President Donald Trump, with the aim of ending the two -year conflict.
Based on the agreement, Hamas has 72 hours to release all hostages, alive or dead, now that the initial withdrawal of Israeli troops has been confirmed until the so -called “yellow line”.
‘Israeli troops will remain to push Hamas’
On Friday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also confirmed that the Israeli troops will remain in Gaza to maintain pressure on Hamas until the organization is disarmed, something in which the fighter team is determined not to do so.
The analyst explained: “The original retirement line, which leaves Israeli defensive forces control 50% of the Gaza Strip, was the easiest to agree. Theoretically, they would then move to another line, leaving them less soil. But I don’t think they will go far beyond this first line, the yellow line, for some time. “
Referring to the issues of the 20 -point peace plan, Clark said:
“The closer to points 18–19–20, the farther they seem to be. Netanyahu shows very clearly that he does not intend to start negotiations with the Palestinian Authority for a two -state solution. It’s been 20 years of his life excluding this idea, but that’s exactly what the 20 points imply, so it’s not going to go so far. There is huge ambiguity around it. “
Speaking about Hamas’ attitude, which seems determined not to disarm or leave Gaza, Clark said:
“They think, I think, that President Trump will be so willing to keep this agreement alive, as he will tolerate it, as will the fact that the Israelis do not really want to get into long -term, official negotiations.‘
Who could constitute peace forces?
“We still have no idea who could allocate, say, a troops, about 5,000 troops, to move to Gaza and stand in the middle of a very fragile truce‘, Clark said, adding: “No one wants to do that.‘
The best chances according to him would be Turkish or Egyptian troops, But they would need significant rewards to participate.
Speaking of the dangers that would face such forces if they develop in Gaza, the professor warned:
“The danger is that if things start to go wrong, they will look like helping Israeli forces to suppress Hamas guerrilla groups, or they will simply turn into a “shot” for Hamas fighters and then the Israelis can react too much. It is a miserable situation for anyone, and only the most disciplined troops can take on it. No one wants it, so the US will have to exert a lot of pressure and provide strong incentives to anyone who is going to participate in this stabilization force.‘
And ended up:
“We do not want to condemn this agreement with excessive expectations from the beginning. Let’s hope for the best, but most truce is more difficult to keep in the first two or three weeks.‘
Source :Skai
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