The Lebanese militant group Hezbollah is rebuilding its armaments and decimated ranks, defying the terms of a cease-fire agreement and raising the possibility of renewed conflict with Israel, the Wall Street Journal notes.

The information indicates that Hezbollah, which is backed by Iran, is replenishing its stockpiles of rockets, anti-tank missiles and artillery. Some of these weapons enter through ports and weakened but still functional smuggling routes through Syria, according to sources. Hezbollah is also developing some new weapons of its own.

The truce is “in the air”.

The rearmament tests the deal that ended Israel’s grueling two-month campaign against the group a year ago. Under the deal, Lebanon is required to begin disarming Hezbollah in certain areas before moving on to the entire country. However, the group has adopted an intransigent stance, arguing that its weapons are necessary to defend Lebanon’s sovereignty.

Israel, which has provided intelligence to help the Lebanese army disarm Hezbollah and has carried out more than 1,000 strikes against the group since a ceasefire agreement was signed last November, is losing patience, the sources said. Israel was angered by the new intelligence findings and the fact that the topic has shifted from disarming Hezbollah to rearming it in just a few months, one of the sources familiar with the matter told the Wall Street Journal.

“If Beirut continues to hesitate, Israel may act unilaterally – and the consequences will be severe,” Tom Barak, the US ambassador to Turkey and the top US envoy to Lebanon and Syria, said in October.

Lebanese leaders are asking Israel to show patience and are open to enhancing information sharing and coordination.

Naim Kassem, the current head of Hezbollah, said in an interview broadcast in October that there must be coordination between the Lebanese army and Hezbollah, but also that they must resist efforts to disarm the group. He said Hezbollah was seeking to avoid another war with Israel.

The example of Hamas

The standoff highlights the difficulty of dismantling an established militia based on support among the population, even when it has suffered a serious defeat.

Difficulties are also evident in Gaza, where Hamas is resisting demands to disarm and relinquish power, demands of President Trump’s deal to end the two-year war.

Hamas lost thousands of fighters during the war and angered many Gazans at the destruction it caused. However, as soon as the truce began nearly three weeks ago, Hamas began a campaign of repression of its opponents to consolidate its power and has since repeatedly engaged in clashes with Israeli forces.

The disarmament of Hezbollah

Hezbollah emerged from Lebanon’s Shiite community more than four decades ago and has survived a series of conflicts with Israel. A new conflict began after the deadly attacks by Hamas on October 7, 2023, firing rockets into Israel almost daily and forcing the evacuation of communities in northern Israel.

Israel’s response last fall was the most devastating for Hezbollah, with thousands of airstrikes against the organization and the near-simultaneous detonation of thousands of bombs that decimated its ranks.

Last November’s cease-fire agreement stipulates that demilitarization efforts must begin south of the Litani River, which defines a zone about 20 miles deep that runs parallel to the border with Israel. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam have both publicly supported Hezbollah’s demilitarization of the rest of the country and the state’s monopoly on the use of force.

The Lebanese government has made progress in removing Hezbollah’s positions and weapons in the southernmost areas of Lebanon, which were long under the group’s control and were badly damaged by the Israeli offensive last year. The disarmament in this area was carried out with the consent of Hezbollah.

However, in other areas of significant Hezbollah influence, such as the southern suburbs of Beirut and the Bekaa Valley that runs through eastern Lebanon, progress has been limited due to the militant group’s resistance.

Danger of civil war

Lebanon’s leaders are in a difficult position. Their army is numerically inferior to Hezbollah. Hezbollah’s political isolation could lead to the country’s Shiite population, hundreds of thousands of whom support Hezbollah, feeling marginalized and less attached to the state. The country’s leaders worry that a conflict could plunge Lebanon back into a kind of civil war like the one that plagued it for most of the second half of the 20th century.

“The Lebanese military is neither interested nor ready to confront Hezbollah militarily,” said Radha Slim, a researcher at Johns Hopkins University’s Foreign Policy Institute and an expert on conflict resolution.

“We are in a gray zone where the Lebanese government says it has taken the decision to disarm Hezbollah. The implementation of this decision is carried out south of Litani. However, there is nothing, no concrete plan, as to what will happen north of Litani,” Slim said.

The growing frustration underscores how difficult it is to turn a cessation of heavy fighting into a lasting peace. It also shows the limits of disarming groups by force of arms.

“What more can Israel do to achieve the desired outcome than it has already done?” said Slim. “Will they invade the south again? Will they go all the way to Beirut and hunt down Hezbollah operatives there?”

According to Acled, an organization that monitors conflict data, Israel has attacked Lebanon about 1,000 times from the air and more than 500 times with artillery since the cessation of hostilities in November last year. Israel is attacking what it says are Hezbollah targets around Beirut and elsewhere. The US is not urging restraint, a senior Western official said.

Israel has also stationed troops in various locations in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah has yet to mount a significant military response.

The buzz of Israeli drones is constant in many areas of Lebanon. More than 60,000 people remain displaced after fleeing their homes during the conflict, according to a report by the International Organization for Migration in October.

Reconstruction efforts in areas of the country damaged by Israeli attacks have stalled as both Hezbollah and the Lebanese government face financial difficulties and Western and Gulf Arab states are reluctant to fund the work until more progress is made on disarmament.

Hezbollah officials said in interviews with The Wall Street Journal earlier this year that while the organization has been weakened by the Israeli military campaign, it has ways to rearm if it chooses. They said Hezbollah’s weapons are an asset to Lebanon, arguing that the army, one of the weakest in the Middle East, cannot defend the country from Israel.

Arab intelligence officials report that Hezbollah is returning to a more decentralized structure, similar to the one it had in the 1980s and much the same as Hamas in Gaza. Although both organizations have recruited new fighters to fill their ranks, their military leadership is still in shambles, according to people familiar with the intelligence services. However, neither organization seems to be giving up.