More than 55% of disapproval, bigwigs from the party itself asking for his resignation and revelations, day after day, of parties promoted in the cabinet during the worst period of the quarantine against Covid-19 in the country. In January, it seemed inevitable that Boris Johnson would step down as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.
The “partygate”, as the scandal of the events became known, cost the premier his popularity and political capital, and candidates to succeed him were already circulating on the betting exchanges – and in Parliament.
Until the war in Ukraine came. On February 24, after weeks of tension in Eastern Europe, Russian President Vladimir Putin authorized the start of what he calls a “military operation” in the neighboring country. And the outbreak of the conflict eased the tension that had also lasted for weeks in London.
With that, the investigation of at least 16 irregular events between May 2020 and April 2021 came out of the spotlight, including server meetings in the Downing Street garden (headquarters of the Executive), employee farewells, game night before Christmas and even a birthday party for the prime minister.
A poll by the British YouGov institute points out that the prime minister’s popularity, which reached 22% in January amid pressure for his resignation, rose again and reached 30% in March, after the start of the war – although in recovery. , the index remains at historic lows.
“It’s horrible to talk like that, but politically the war was very useful to him,” says professor of international relations at the University of São Paulo Kai Enno Lehmann, who pursued an academic career at the University of Liverpool. The relief, however, should be momentary.
First, because the “partygate” is far from over. There are still ongoing investigations, and the prime minister, as far as is known, has not been on the first list of people fined for breaking the lockdown rules. When the fines arrive in Downing Street, the subject will certainly be back in the British tabloids.
Second, while Boris has offered military and financial aid to Ukraine, his government has been criticized for harboring few refugees from the conflict — so far, nearly 4.4 million Ukrainians have left the country, the fastest-moving diaspora since the war. Second World War.
The UK only took in 12,000 of them. Portugal, for example, a nation with 15% of the population and 8% of the UK’s GDP, has already received more than 27,000 Ukrainians. The situation has caused embarrassment to the British government, and Home Secretary Priti Patel apologized in an interview with the BBC. “It’s been frustrating,” she said. “I apologize, in frustration.”
Boris saw his colleagues Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz – leaders, along with him, of the largest economies on the European continent – take a leading role in an attempt to reduce the tensions of the conflict, especially in the weeks before the war, with face-to-face negotiations and phone calls to Putin.
The British did not go to the Kremlin nor did he assume a diplomatic role. He called the Russian once, on February 2, in a conversation in which the two spoke of “applying the spirit of dialogue to current tensions to find a peaceful resolution,” according to the Downing Street note.
Lehmann believes that the more timid presence at the negotiating table is due to the fact that the United Kingdom is no longer part of the European Union, so that the problem of the bloc’s dependence on Russian natural gas would no longer be its responsibility, among other things — the British government says that less than 4% of the product used in the country comes from Moscow.
Since the beginning of the war, then, the British opted for another path, that of confrontation, like the American Joe Biden. Russia and the United Kingdom already came from a tense diplomatic environment, especially after Foreign Minister Liz Truss’ gaffes about Russian geography. She confused the Baltic Sea with the Black Sea in an interview and, in a bilateral meeting, was tricked by Chancellor Sergei Lavrov, who asked her if she recognized Russian sovereignty in Rostov and Voronezh, which are part of Russia itself — there are no diplomatic issues involving the regions.
The mood prompted Boris to make strong speeches against Putin, calling him a dictator and war criminal from the very first days of the confrontation.
To the Kremlin’s reaction, claiming that the prime minister was “the most active anti-Russian”, the British responded with irony. “I don’t believe there is a single person at the NATO or G7 table who is against Russia or the Russian people. Least of all me. I am probably the only prime minister in UK history with the name Boris.”
Despite the fiery tone against Putin, London was criticized for being slow to apply sanctions against Kremlin members and Russian oligarchs — in some cases, years of delay were cited.
Billionaire Oleg Deripaska, for example, an industrialist with close relations with the Russian president, has been the target of US sanctions since 2018 and only entered the UK’s veto list on March 10, during the war. The same is true of Andrei Kostin, chairman of Russian state bank VTB.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov and chief of staff Anton Vaino were also targeted by British sanctions more than 15 days after the move was taken by the European Union, as was Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Michustin. .
That’s because the Russian oligarchs and elite in general have a strong connection to the United Kingdom, where they live, study and buy stocks and companies – the British capital is jokingly called “Londongrad”. The best-known example is Roman Abramovich, an influential figure in Russian power circles and owner of Chelsea (he is now trying to sell the football club).
If for now Boris has been balancing on this tightrope between strong speech and reticent actions since the outbreak of the war, he and his co-religionists will have a good thermometer in less than a month. On May 5, local elections for mayors and other local officials are expected to indicate the Conservative Party’s popularity — and show whether or not Britons have forgotten their leader’s parties.
