An unprecedented election. It is in this climate that 49 million voters are being called to the polls this Sunday (10) to choose the next president of France. A winner for five years as a centrist rally on the party-political scene, Emmanuel Macron is seeking re-election in a race that started with a comfortable lead but has become as fierce as it is uncertain.
An Ipsos poll released on Friday (8) showed the president with 26.5% of voting intentions, ahead of the far-right Marine Le Pen, with 23%. The difference between the two, which reached 16 percentage points, fell within a month to 3.5. In third place is Jean-Luc Mélenchon, from the ultra-left, with 16.5%. In an eventual runoff, Macron would beat Le Pen by 53% to 47%.
The narrow margin explains the rise in pitch of the final stretch. On the last day of the official campaign, while Macron called Le Pen a racist, due to the anti-immigration measures in his program, she responded with “aggressive and exalted”.
Mélenchon, in turn, celebrated support from the left, such as former pre-candidate Christiane Taubira. While he technically has a chance of reaching the second round, his voters are seen as key to the most likely final contest between Macron and Le Pen on the 24th.
The lawsuit is considered unique in recent French history by the context that precedes it. Unlike previous contests, which for months occupied space in public debate, this election was overshadowed first by the pandemic and in recent weeks by the war in Ukraine.
In the end, the 12 postulants did not have a long campaign. Mainly Macron, who, seeking a leading role in diplomatic negotiations in Eastern Europe, only confirmed his candidacy a day before the deadline, at the beginning of March. The president did not participate in any face-to-face debates with opponents and held only one large rally.
If a month ago the role in the Russian-Ukrainian dialogue brought him gains, today it reinforces the impression that he is a palatial ruler, distant from the reality of the people.
Squeezed between health and war headlines, the short campaign is also blamed for the weak debate of ideas – one of the reasons, according to analysts, for the relative apathy of the French.
“There wasn’t a big proposal that made voters think about the impact on their lives, something positive that could result from the election”, says Mathieu Gallard, director of polls at the Ipsos institute.
He recalls that, in 2017, two themes mobilized the French: leaving the European Union (Le Pen’s proposal) and implementing a universal basic income (socialist project). Polls indicate that abstention this Sunday could be around 28%, up from five years ago (22.2%) and close to 2002 (28.4%), the worst for a first round since 1965. In France , voting is not mandatory.
Disinterest is greater among younger and lower income groups, two of the groups affected by the deterioration in purchasing power. According to Ipsos, for 56% of voters this is the most important issue for deciding the vote, ahead of environment and health (26% each), immigration and retirement (24% each).
“It’s the first time since the 1970s that only one issue has been so isolated in French concern,” says Gallard. The other subjects also have weight, but within niches.
The theme dates back to 2018, in the context of the yellow vest movement — protests by drivers against fuel tax increases that ended up attracting radicals on the right and left.
In 2022, the concern gained strength again due to the increase in the price of energy and became more evident with the war. Annual inflation in March in France was 5.1%; a year ago, it was 1.6%.
While Le Pen took the cost of living to the center of the campaign, proposing to lower the tax on gas, electricity and fuel from 20% to 5.5%, Macron did not delve into the matter. “He was president in the health crisis and in the international crisis, he probably thought that it would be enough to show himself capable of managing major crises. The campaign didn’t seem to be very well prepared for this issue”, says Gallard.
If the most likely second round is confirmed, as of Monday the centrist and the ultra-rightist will intensify the search for votes on the left. Le Pen —who should count on voters from the even more right-wing Éric Zemmour, who currently hold 9% in the polls — affirmed his willingness to nominate members of acronyms from the opposing camp in an eventual government.
Macron, on the other hand, has taken up the speech of fear against the far right and promised new measures to lessen the impact on energy prices, in addition to increasing pensions. “The extremist danger today is even greater than it was a few months, a few years ago,” he said at his only rally on the 2nd.
Oddly enough, the procession on the left looks uncomfortable for the president.
Firstly, rhetorically, since when he arrived at the Elysée, in 2017, he announced the beginning of an era “ni de droite ni de gauche”, that is, neither right nor left. In practice, however, his performance is considered center-right, and he saw the weakening of the left – the socialist Anne Hidalgo, mayor of Paris, was a supporting player, with a tiny 2% in the polls.
Secondly, because there are relevant points of contact between the campaigns of Le Pen and Mélenchon, as in relation to the minimum age of retirement, today at 62 years. Macron intends to extend the cut to 65 years, while rivals advocate lowering the limit to 60 (for some categories, in her case, and for all, in the leftist’s case).
Other convergences take place in relation to the war: the two had positions favorable to Vladimir Putin in the past and defend France’s withdrawal from NATO, in a speech against the president’s “globalism”. “Don’t tell me we can’t make shoes, hats or jeans here that haven’t traveled halfway around the world,” the leftist said Tuesday at a simultaneous rally in 12 cities made possible by holograms.
“If Macron wants the votes of the left, he has to go after it. It’s his responsibility to convince voters. And one way to do that is to review some issues, such as the minimum age for retirement,” he told the newspaper. Sheet MEP Manon Aubry, a supporter of Mélenchon in France Insubmissa and active in his campaign.
According to Ipsos, of those voting for the leftist, 37% say they will abstain in a second round between Macron and Le Pen; another 36% indicate they prefer the current president; and 27% would choose the ultra-rightist.
Like Le Pen, Mélenchon is running for the third time in the presidential election. In the second round of 2017, he did not declare a vote for Macron – he limited himself to saying that he would not vote for Le Pen. His party held an internal consultation, and most members decided that it was best to vote blank or null. According to Aubry, the process should be repeated this year.
“The votes of the left and of Mélenchon will be the main aspect of the second round, and Macron really needs to improve his position among these voters,” says Gallard. The fear strategy, however, is viewed with suspicion. “It was he who paved the way for the extreme right, not us. We were the first to show that they are a danger to society,” says Aubry.
Professor of political science at the University of Nice, Vincent Martigny believes that the fear campaign that brought together the “republican front” against Le Pen in 2017 may no longer work.
“Now that Macron is no longer a rookie, there is a feeling of tiredness and hostility towards him. Much of public opinion, especially on the left, sees him as an arrogant president, distant from the people, too liberal and too vertical in terms of of power. Someone who sees himself as a king.”
The crown is at stake.
