Just like five years ago, the second round of the French presidential election should be disputed between Emmanuel Macron, 44, and Marine Le Pen, 53. This Sunday (10), projections from institutes show that the two were the most voted among 12 candidates. and thus they must face each other again on April 24th.
According to Ipsos figures, released after the polls closed (at 8pm in Paris, 3pm in BrasÃlia), the centrist president has 28.1% of the votes, compared to 23.3%. of the far-right candidate. In third place is the ultra-left Jean-Luc Mélenchon, with 20.1%.
In the first round of 2017, Macron won 8.6 million votes, with 24% of those valid, while Le Pen totaled 7.7 million, with 21%. A poll released last Friday (8) pointed to a close dispute in the second round, with Macron winning by 53% to 47%. In 2017, he defeated Le Pen by 66% to 34%. The last time a French president was re-elected was 20 years ago, with conservative Jacques Chirac.
About 49 million voters were eligible to go to the polls on Sunday, but partial abstention was registered at 35% at 5 pm, higher than five years ago, when it reached 30% at the same time. In France, voting is not mandatory. Three hours before the polls close, abstention in Paris, which had a sunny Sunday, was well above the national average, at almost 48%.
Abstention this Sunday is just no higher than that recorded in 2002, when the rate at 5 pm was 41.55%.
In theory, the low turnout of voters in large cities favors Le Pen, whose electorate has a good share of workers in smaller and peripheral cities and small rural producers.
The top candidates voted just before lunchtime. At around 11 am, Mélenchon went to the ballot box in the city of Marseille. A little later it was Le Pen’s turn to appear at his section in Hénin-Beaumont, in the north of the country. Accompanied by his wife, Macron voted shortly before 1 pm in Le Touquet, also in northern France. The three then headed to Paris, where they will follow the investigation.
Projection of the first round of the French presidential election
macron 28.1%
Le Pen 23.3%
Mélenchon 20.1%
Zemmour 7.2%
Pécresse 5%
jadot 4.4%
Lassale 3.3%
Roussel 2.7%
hidalgo 2.1%
Source: Ipsos Institute
The result of the first round reflects polls released on the eve of the vote, which gave Macron 26.5% of voting intentions, 3.5 points ahead of Le Pen. The difference between the two, which reached 16 points at the beginning of March, was steadily decreasing in the final stretch of the campaign.
According to analysts, Le Pen benefited from a campaign focused on themes related to cost of view, impacted in recent months by inflation that reached 5.1% in March. In addition, he was able to soften his extremist speech, leaving ideas such as France leaving the European Union in the background. The presence of Éric Zemmour in the contest, even further to the right, also gave the candidate a moderate veneer. With 7.2%, he is expected to finish the election in fourth place.
Le Pen’s program, however, remains radical, with anti-immigration proposals, such as holding a referendum to ensure that French people prioritize access to social housing and employment. Another pledge is to “eradicate Islamist ideologies” from the country and fine women who wear the veil. “It’s a measure the French are asking for,” she said last week.
Macron, for his part, started the campaign on a high in the polls, reaping the rewards of his leading role in diplomatic talks surrounding the war in Ukraine, which began a week before he confirmed he would run for re-election. Committed to the international scene and confident of a momentary advantage in voting intentions, his campaign was limited to a single large rally with voters, and he did not participate in face-to-face debates with opponents.
In addition, experts assess that the president has not delved into proposals to alleviate issues related to purchasing power, the greatest concern of the French at the moment. On the other hand, he espoused unpopular ideas, such as raising the minimum retirement age from 62 to 65.
Starting this Monday, the two opponents will intensify the search for votes among voters on the left, especially those who chose Mélenchon in this first vote.
Despite ideological differences, the programs of the radical left and the extreme right have points in common, such as the retirement age – he defends lowering it to 60 years for everyone, and she, for some categories. Both are also anti-NATO, the Western military alliance, and against Macron’s “globalism”, in addition to having supported, in the past, Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Macron, who, when he took office, announced the beginning of an era “ni de droite ni de gauche”, that is, neither from the right nor from the left, counts with rejection in the most left wing, which considers him more to the right, for its liberal reform program and political behavior seen as excessively vertical.
If, in 2017, his victory had the useful vote of voters more interested in blocking the arrival of the ultra-right to the Elysée than in conviction around him, this year experts and members of leftist movements question the adhesion of a “front republican” in the second round.
According to an Ipsos poll released on the eve of the first round, among those voting for Mélenchon, 37% said they would abstain in a second round between Macron and Le Pen; another 36% indicated they preferred the current president; and 27% would choose the ultra-rightist.
In 2017, Mélenchon, who came in fourth, did not declare a vote for Macron – he limited himself to saying that he would not vote for Le Pen. His party held an internal consultation, and most members decided that it was best to vote blank or null. The process should be repeated this year.
Overall, the presidential campaign was atypical, considered unprecedented in recent French history. The coronavirus pandemic, which has lasted more than two years, prevented electoral issues from having space in public debate, which ended up also overshadowed by the conflict in Eastern Europe. This is one of the explanations for the lack of interest of voters.
This is the third time Le Pen has run for president. In addition to 2017, when she was defeated by Macron, in 2012 she was in third place, with 18%. Macron is running for the second time.
