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More intense attacks, concentrated in the eastern region and with the prospect of a more violent confrontation and the use of heavier weapons on both sides in the coming days.
The war in Ukraine has entered a second phase, as the Russian government calls the onslaught on neighboring territory after the withdrawal of troops from around Kiev.
At first, the Kremlin launched offensives against key military bases in other parts of Ukrainian territory, at the same time as its troops advanced to the east to dominate cities close to pro-Moscow separatist areas.
Now, after meeting resistance and having suffered its biggest casualty since World War II, Russia is trying to concentrate forces in the region in order to consolidate its hold on cities conquered since then, such as Mariupol.
The region is linked to two primary objectives claimed by the government of Vladimir Putin to justify the invasion, which began 46 days ago:
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Ukraine’s recognition of the breakaway provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk as independents;
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The recognition of Crimeaannexed by Putin in 2014, as Russian territory.
Understand: Dominated by pro-Moscow groups, Donetsk and Luhansk are in the eastern Donbass region, close to the Russian border. With the attacks in this region, Putin is trying to create a land corridor between his country, through the Donbass, to Crimea, which is in the south.
The shift in the focus of the conflict to the east is demonstrated by the series of attacks in Kharkiv (1, on the map below), the second largest Ukrainian city, which was the target of 66 bombings in just 24 hours, according to local authorities on Sunday. Kharkiv is in the northeast of the country – which indicates a possible attempt by Russia to extend its corridor there.
The same with Dnipro (two), where a civilian airport was destroyed on Sunday, according to local authorities. The industrial city of one million inhabitants is crossed by the river of the same name, which marks the limit of the eastern regions of the country.
There are also frequent attacks in Kherson (4), close to Crimea; and in Mikolaiv (5), between Crimea and Odessa, Ukraine’s main port. The southern city is on the way to Moldova and could be a link between the territory that Russia wants to dominate and Transnistria – the pro-Moscow area in the neighboring country.
This reorganization of Russian efforts is also the context of two tragedies that have shocked the international community in the last week and that are at the heart of the narrative dispute between Russia and Ukraine:
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You dead in Butcha exposed by the departure of Putin’s troops from the Kiev region. This Sunday, a new mass grave, with dozens of bodies, was found in Buzova, also near the capital. Russia denies executing civilians;
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THE train station attack in Kramatorsk (3), which left more than 50 dead. Although the two countries blame each other for the action and it is unclear whether the site was the correct missile target, the tragedy shows that military activity remains intense in the Donetsk region.
For Danielle Ayres, coordinator of the Graduate Program in International Relations at UFSC (Federal University of Santa Catarina) and vice-president of Abed (Brazilian Association of Defense Studies), the attacks on these cities aim to consolidate the progress achieved in first phase.
“The objective now is no longer to seize this territory, but to guarantee Russian control over this territory. So that in the future it will be possible, at a negotiating table, to make Ukraine recognize Russian advances to the east,” he says.
According to the researcher, the near future of the conflict will depend on how Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky organizes his defense in the east.
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“He can send his army to help the paramilitary groups that are there, like the Azov Battalion and a large number of mercenaries. But he runs the risk of his troops being decimated and leaving Kiev unprotected,” he says. In this case, there is a possibility that the conflict will continue, similar to what has happened in the Donbass region since 2014;
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Zelensky can only send armaments reinforcement. Faced with the discrepancy of the troops, the combat could end more quickly with an eventual Ukrainian defeat in the region. But the resistance of the international community to give legitimacy to the Russian presence in the area could bring the war to a stagnation in the diplomatic field.
Do not get lost
We present three factors that should influence the coming weeks of conflict:
Shipment of weapons: Ukraine has started to receive part of the arsenal promised by NATO, the western military alliance. The material comes from Slovakia and the Czech Republic and includes long-range anti-aircraft systems, rocket launchers, tanks and armored vehicles. On Saturday, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson met with Zelensky in Kiev and also announced more military aid.
new command: According to the BBC, Russia has appointed General Alexander Dvornikov, who has served in Syria, to command the invasion of Ukraine and reduce Moscow’s setbacks in the conflict. For US officials, the change signals that more crimes and brutalities against Ukrainian civilians will occur.
Commotion: On a visit to Butcha on Friday, EU officials promised more support for Ukraine, including helping the country join the bloc — a nod that could anger Russia. The death of civilians in the city also prompted the announcement of new sanctions by the EU, US and UK.
What happened
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New mass grave with dozens of bodies found near Kiev;
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Dnipro Airport in eastern Ukraine was bombed;
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Pope has called for an Easter truce that will lead to negotiations in Ukraine.
picture of the day
What to see and hear to stay informed
A selection of scenes of violence and anguish that took over Ukrainian cities captured by photographers since February 24:
