The Americans consider it unlikely that the Russian attack on Donbas will succeed. The American Institute for the Study of War estimates that the Russian attack on Donbas “is unlikely to be dramatically more successful than previous Russian attacks”, but that Russian forces could “achieve limited gains”.
The Russian forces did not make the “operational break” necessary for the rebuilding and proper integration of the damaged units withdrawn from northeastern Ukraine, the BBC’s think tank said in an assessment.
Frequent reports of catastrophically low Russian morale and ongoing logistical challenges indicate that the effective combat power of Russian units in eastern Ukraine is a fraction of its dynamics on paper, “the institute said.
While Russian forces may be able to destroy Ukrainian positions through “high concentrations of firepower and large numbers of numbers,” a spectacular Russian success “remains highly unlikely,” he added.
What appreciates Kyiv
Russia’s new offensive in eastern Ukraine is progressing “very cautiously” and will fail because Moscow forces do not have the strength to penetrate Ukrainian defenses, says Ukrainian presidential adviser Oleksy Arestovich.
According to Reuters, the Ukrainian official said that Russian forces were trying to find “sensitive points” in Ukraine’s defense, but added: “Their attack will fail – I give you a 99% guarantee – they just do not have enough strength.”
“The battle for Donbass, which was announced and apparently started yesterday, is going on, and it is being carried out very carefully. The battle will not be in Russia’s favor,” he told national television.
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